Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and international models point to a daytime maximum of 27–28°C on May 18, supported by a subtropical ridge that promotes partly cloudy skies and restricts intense solar heating amid moderate easterly flow. This setup creates a modest cooling anomaly relative to the May climatological average of 28–30°C, with limited potential for sea-breeze enhancement or scattered showers to push readings higher. Trader consensus reflected in the 51.5% implied probability for 27°C and 22.5% for 28°C aligns closely with this model agreement, while lower probabilities for 29°C or above underscore the expected moderation from variable cloud cover and typical early-summer transition patterns. Updated guidance later today could refine the precise peak ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月18日香港气温最高？
5月18日香港气温最高？
27°C 48%
26°C 27%
28°C 22%
25°C 4.8%
最新
$79,929 交易量
最新
$79,929 交易量
2026-05-18
21°C或以下
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
5%
26°C
27%
27°C
48%
28°C
22%
29°C
3%
30°C
1%
31°C或以上
<1%
27°C 48%
26°C 27%
28°C 22%
25°C 4.8%
最新
$79,929 交易量
最新
$79,929 交易量
2026-05-18
21°C或以下
$5,221 交易量
<1%
22°C
$3,756 交易量
<1%
23°C
$14,385 交易量
<1%
24°C
$8,191 交易量
<1%
25°C
$7,449 交易量
5%
26°C
$7,483 交易量
27%
27°C
$5,119 交易量
48%
28°C
$4,655 交易量
22%
29°C
$9,206 交易量
3%
30°C
$5,736 交易量
1%
31°C或以上
$8,728 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and international models point to a daytime maximum of 27–28°C on May 18, supported by a subtropical ridge that promotes partly cloudy skies and restricts intense solar heating amid moderate easterly flow. This setup creates a modest cooling anomaly relative to the May climatological average of 28–30°C, with limited potential for sea-breeze enhancement or scattered showers to push readings higher. Trader consensus reflected in the 51.5% implied probability for 27°C and 22.5% for 28°C aligns closely with this model agreement, while lower probabilities for 29°C or above underscore the expected moderation from variable cloud cover and typical early-summer transition patterns. Updated guidance later today could refine the precise peak ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$79,929结束日期
2026-05-18市场开放时间
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and international models point to a daytime maximum of 27–28°C on May 18, supported by a subtropical ridge that promotes partly cloudy skies and restricts intense solar heating amid moderate easterly flow. This setup creates a modest cooling anomaly relative to the May climatological average of 28–30°C, with limited potential for sea-breeze enhancement or scattered showers to push readings higher. Trader consensus reflected in the 51.5% implied probability for 27°C and 22.5% for 28°C aligns closely with this model agreement, while lower probabilities for 29°C or above underscore the expected moderation from variable cloud cover and typical early-summer transition patterns. Updated guidance later today could refine the precise peak ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$79,929结束日期
2026-05-18市场开放时间
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETCurrent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and international models point to a daytime maximum of 27–28°C on May 18, supported by a subtropical ridge that promotes partly cloudy skies and restricts intense solar heating amid moderate easterly flow. This setup creates a modest cooling anomaly relative to the May climatological average of 28–30°C, with limited potential for sea-breeze enhancement or scattered showers to push readings higher. Trader consensus reflected in the 51.5% implied probability for 27°C and 22.5% for 28°C aligns closely with this model agreement, while lower probabilities for 29°C or above underscore the expected moderation from variable cloud cover and typical early-summer transition patterns. Updated guidance later today could refine the precise peak ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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