Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for Chicago points to a high near 79°F on May 18, driven by southerly flow and above-normal mid-May warmth that has kept most ensemble runs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This strong scientific consensus from official forecast models explains why traders have assigned an 89% implied probability to 78°F or higher, well above the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 71°F. With resolution just two days away, limited downside risk remains unless a faster-moving cold front arrives, though current steering patterns show no such development. Updated short-range runs from the National Weather Service will provide the final data points before the market settles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于芝加哥5月18日最高气温？
芝加哥5月18日最高气温？
78°F或更高 92%
76-77°F 9%
74-75°F 2.1%
72-73°F 1.9%
最新
最新
2026-05-18
59°F或更低
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
9%
78°F或更高
92%
78°F或更高 92%
76-77°F 9%
74-75°F 2.1%
72-73°F 1.9%
最新
最新
2026-05-18
59°F或更低
$519 交易量
<1%
60-61°F
$3,357 交易量
<1%
62-63°F
$367 交易量
<1%
64-65°F
$351 交易量
<1%
66-67°F
$317 交易量
<1%
68-69°F
$317 交易量
<1%
70-71°F
$267 交易量
2%
72-73°F
$262 交易量
2%
74-75°F
$183 交易量
2%
76-77°F
$294 交易量
9%
78°F或更高
$581 交易量
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for Chicago points to a high near 79°F on May 18, driven by southerly flow and above-normal mid-May warmth that has kept most ensemble runs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This strong scientific consensus from official forecast models explains why traders have assigned an 89% implied probability to 78°F or higher, well above the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 71°F. With resolution just two days away, limited downside risk remains unless a faster-moving cold front arrives, though current steering patterns show no such development. Updated short-range runs from the National Weather Service will provide the final data points before the market settles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$6,355结束日期
2026-05-18市场开放时间
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for Chicago points to a high near 79°F on May 18, driven by southerly flow and above-normal mid-May warmth that has kept most ensemble runs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This strong scientific consensus from official forecast models explains why traders have assigned an 89% implied probability to 78°F or higher, well above the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 71°F. With resolution just two days away, limited downside risk remains unless a faster-moving cold front arrives, though current steering patterns show no such development. Updated short-range runs from the National Weather Service will provide the final data points before the market settles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$6,355结束日期
2026-05-18市场开放时间
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for Chicago points to a high near 79°F on May 18, driven by southerly flow and above-normal mid-May warmth that has kept most ensemble runs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This strong scientific consensus from official forecast models explains why traders have assigned an 89% implied probability to 78°F or higher, well above the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 71°F. With resolution just two days away, limited downside risk remains unless a faster-moving cold front arrives, though current steering patterns show no such development. Updated short-range runs from the National Weather Service will provide the final data points before the market settles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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