Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for New York City's lowest temperature at Central Park on May 17, with ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models showing a broad spread across 55–74°F due to divergent upper-level patterns. Recent Climate Prediction Center outlooks indicate a cooler-than-average May for the Northeast amid an emerging El Niño transition (61% chance May–July), favoring potential cold frontal passages or clear-sky radiative cooling for lower outcomes like 55–59°F, while persistent ridging or cloud cover could push lows toward 66–73°F bins. Historical mid-May lows average 55–60°F, but urban heat island effects often temper extremes. Watch daily 00Z model updates and NWS forecast discussions for shifts ahead of resolution.