China Meteorological Administration forecasts place Beijing's May 14 high temperature at 32-33°C under mostly sunny skies with light southerly winds, driving the 62% market-implied probability for 33°C or below as traders align with local guidance during North China's first 2026 heatwave. This warm spell, fueled by a persistent subtropical ridge at 500 hPa levels promoting subsidence and dry adiabatic warming, has elevated readings 4-6°C above May climatological averages of around 27°C, following highs near 32°C earlier this week. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS models introduce 2-4°C uncertainty, bolstering 22% odds for 34°C and 13.5% for 35°C amid potential urban heat island effects or delayed cloud cover. Official station observations will resolve the market tomorrow.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Beijing on May 14?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 14?
33°C or below 61%
34°C 23%
35°C 14%
36°C 3.6%
最新
$32,792 交易量
最新
$32,792 交易量
2026-05-14
33°C or below
61%
34°C
23%
35°C
14%
36°C
4%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
33°C or below 61%
34°C 23%
35°C 14%
36°C 3.6%
最新
$32,792 交易量
最新
$32,792 交易量
2026-05-14
33°C or below
$5,685 交易量
61%
34°C
$2,130 交易量
23%
35°C
$2,004 交易量
14%
36°C
$2,708 交易量
4%
37°C
$3,784 交易量
1%
38°C
$4,280 交易量
<1%
39°C
$3,701 交易量
<1%
40°C
$2,761 交易量
<1%
41°C
$1,701 交易量
<1%
42°C
$2,782 交易量
<1%
43°C or higher
$1,592 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.China Meteorological Administration forecasts place Beijing's May 14 high temperature at 32-33°C under mostly sunny skies with light southerly winds, driving the 62% market-implied probability for 33°C or below as traders align with local guidance during North China's first 2026 heatwave. This warm spell, fueled by a persistent subtropical ridge at 500 hPa levels promoting subsidence and dry adiabatic warming, has elevated readings 4-6°C above May climatological averages of around 27°C, following highs near 32°C earlier this week. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS models introduce 2-4°C uncertainty, bolstering 22% odds for 34°C and 13.5% for 35°C amid potential urban heat island effects or delayed cloud cover. Official station observations will resolve the market tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2026, 12:25 AM ET
交易量
$32,792结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 12:25 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.China Meteorological Administration forecasts place Beijing's May 14 high temperature at 32-33°C under mostly sunny skies with light southerly winds, driving the 62% market-implied probability for 33°C or below as traders align with local guidance during North China's first 2026 heatwave. This warm spell, fueled by a persistent subtropical ridge at 500 hPa levels promoting subsidence and dry adiabatic warming, has elevated readings 4-6°C above May climatological averages of around 27°C, following highs near 32°C earlier this week. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS models introduce 2-4°C uncertainty, bolstering 22% odds for 34°C and 13.5% for 35°C amid potential urban heat island effects or delayed cloud cover. Official station observations will resolve the market tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$32,792结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 12:25 AM ETChina Meteorological Administration forecasts place Beijing's May 14 high temperature at 32-33°C under mostly sunny skies with light southerly winds, driving the 62% market-implied probability for 33°C or below as traders align with local guidance during North China's first 2026 heatwave. This warm spell, fueled by a persistent subtropical ridge at 500 hPa levels promoting subsidence and dry adiabatic warming, has elevated readings 4-6°C above May climatological averages of around 27°C, following highs near 32°C earlier this week. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS models introduce 2-4°C uncertainty, bolstering 22% odds for 34°C and 13.5% for 35°C amid potential urban heat island effects or delayed cloud cover. Official station observations will resolve the market tomorrow.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题