PAGASA's latest forecast for Manila on May 15 points to a daytime high near 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward 35°C (34.5% implied probability) and 36°C (32.0%) as leading outcomes. This tight race reflects model uncertainty, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing slight divergence amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño influences that could amplify heat. Localized convection risks suppressing peaks via cloud cover, while urban heat island effects and weak sea breezes favor marginal intensification above climatological May averages of 33–34°C. Historical records exceed 38°C in clear conditions, but current 60–70% rain chances temper extremes; watch PAGASA's afternoon update for refined guidance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Manila on May 15?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 15?
35°C 37%
36°C 23%
34°C 21%
33°C 4.4%
最新
最新
2026-05-15
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
4%
34°C
26%
35°C
37%
36°C
23%
37°C
4%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
1%
35°C 37%
36°C 23%
34°C 21%
33°C 4.4%
最新
最新
2026-05-15
29°C or below
$357 交易量
<1%
30°C
$366 交易量
<1%
31°C
$217 交易量
<1%
32°C
$693 交易量
1%
33°C
$775 交易量
4%
34°C
$498 交易量
26%
35°C
$245 交易量
37%
36°C
$493 交易量
23%
37°C
$778 交易量
4%
38°C
$144 交易量
1%
39°C or higher
$190 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest forecast for Manila on May 15 points to a daytime high near 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward 35°C (34.5% implied probability) and 36°C (32.0%) as leading outcomes. This tight race reflects model uncertainty, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing slight divergence amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño influences that could amplify heat. Localized convection risks suppressing peaks via cloud cover, while urban heat island effects and weak sea breezes favor marginal intensification above climatological May averages of 33–34°C. Historical records exceed 38°C in clear conditions, but current 60–70% rain chances temper extremes; watch PAGASA's afternoon update for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
交易量
$4,737结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest forecast for Manila on May 15 points to a daytime high near 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward 35°C (34.5% implied probability) and 36°C (32.0%) as leading outcomes. This tight race reflects model uncertainty, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing slight divergence amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño influences that could amplify heat. Localized convection risks suppressing peaks via cloud cover, while urban heat island effects and weak sea breezes favor marginal intensification above climatological May averages of 33–34°C. Historical records exceed 38°C in clear conditions, but current 60–70% rain chances temper extremes; watch PAGASA's afternoon update for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$4,737结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:59 AM ETPAGASA's latest forecast for Manila on May 15 points to a daytime high near 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward 35°C (34.5% implied probability) and 36°C (32.0%) as leading outcomes. This tight race reflects model uncertainty, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing slight divergence amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño influences that could amplify heat. Localized convection risks suppressing peaks via cloud cover, while urban heat island effects and weak sea breezes favor marginal intensification above climatological May averages of 33–34°C. Historical records exceed 38°C in clear conditions, but current 60–70% rain chances temper extremes; watch PAGASA's afternoon update for refined guidance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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