Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.3% implied probability, driven by consistent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projecting highs of 24-27°C amid a stable warm pattern. Recent SMN advisories through May 14 confirm this trend, with observed highs in the Valle de México reaching 25-27°C under partly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with May climatology where average highs hit 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation during the dry season peak. Model ensembles from SMN's 96-hour outlook show low support for cooling influences like cold fronts, which are rare this late in spring. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or heavy showers suppressing daytime heating, though such shifts remain improbable per current guidance; expect refined SMN updates on May 15.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 16?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 16?
24°C or higher 99.6%
23°C <1%
16°C <1%
18°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-05-16
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
100%
24°C or higher 99.6%
23°C <1%
16°C <1%
18°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-05-16
14°C or below
$850 交易量
<1%
15°C
$880 交易量
<1%
16°C
$834 交易量
<1%
17°C
$1,015 交易量
<1%
18°C
$466 交易量
<1%
19°C
$859 交易量
<1%
20°C
$850 交易量
<1%
21°C
$943 交易量
<1%
22°C
$914 交易量
<1%
23°C
$1,025 交易量
<1%
24°C or higher
$1,238 交易量
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.3% implied probability, driven by consistent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projecting highs of 24-27°C amid a stable warm pattern. Recent SMN advisories through May 14 confirm this trend, with observed highs in the Valle de México reaching 25-27°C under partly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with May climatology where average highs hit 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation during the dry season peak. Model ensembles from SMN's 96-hour outlook show low support for cooling influences like cold fronts, which are rare this late in spring. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or heavy showers suppressing daytime heating, though such shifts remain improbable per current guidance; expect refined SMN updates on May 15.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
交易量
$9,875结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.3% implied probability, driven by consistent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projecting highs of 24-27°C amid a stable warm pattern. Recent SMN advisories through May 14 confirm this trend, with observed highs in the Valle de México reaching 25-27°C under partly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with May climatology where average highs hit 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation during the dry season peak. Model ensembles from SMN's 96-hour outlook show low support for cooling influences like cold fronts, which are rare this late in spring. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or heavy showers suppressing daytime heating, though such shifts remain improbable per current guidance; expect refined SMN updates on May 15.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$9,875结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.3% implied probability, driven by consistent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projecting highs of 24-27°C amid a stable warm pattern. Recent SMN advisories through May 14 confirm this trend, with observed highs in the Valle de México reaching 25-27°C under partly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with May climatology where average highs hit 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation during the dry season peak. Model ensembles from SMN's 96-hour outlook show low support for cooling influences like cold fronts, which are rare this late in spring. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or heavy showers suppressing daytime heating, though such shifts remain improbable per current guidance; expect refined SMN updates on May 15.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题