Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15, 2026, reaching 31°C or below, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) showing peak readings capped at 31°C amid persistent cloudy skies that limited solar heating. Real-time data from Beijing Capital International Airport and city stations confirmed daytime highs stabilizing around 30-31°C, with southerly winds and overcast conditions preventing further intensification, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 27°C highs but allowing occasional peaks near 30°C. Model consensus from CMA and global forecasts aligned precisely on this cap, with no notable divergences. Resolution hinges on final CMA records; a challenge would require an anomalous unreported surge in late-evening data, deemed highly improbable as temperatures decline nocturnally.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Beijing on May 15?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 15?
31°C or below 100.0%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$58,444 交易量
$58,444 交易量
2026-05-15
31°C or below
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
No
31°C or below 100.0%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$58,444 交易量
$58,444 交易量
2026-05-15
31°C or below
$11,329 交易量
Yes
32°C
$6,688 交易量
No
33°C
$9,402 交易量
No
34°C
$11,296 交易量
No
35°C
$5,301 交易量
No
36°C
$3,307 交易量
No
37°C
$3,174 交易量
No
38°C
$2,141 交易量
No
39°C
$2,188 交易量
No
40°C
$1,780 交易量
No
41°C or higher
$1,839 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15, 2026, reaching 31°C or below, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) showing peak readings capped at 31°C amid persistent cloudy skies that limited solar heating. Real-time data from Beijing Capital International Airport and city stations confirmed daytime highs stabilizing around 30-31°C, with southerly winds and overcast conditions preventing further intensification, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 27°C highs but allowing occasional peaks near 30°C. Model consensus from CMA and global forecasts aligned precisely on this cap, with no notable divergences. Resolution hinges on final CMA records; a challenge would require an anomalous unreported surge in late-evening data, deemed highly improbable as temperatures decline nocturnally.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
交易量
$58,444结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ET已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15, 2026, reaching 31°C or below, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) showing peak readings capped at 31°C amid persistent cloudy skies that limited solar heating. Real-time data from Beijing Capital International Airport and city stations confirmed daytime highs stabilizing around 30-31°C, with southerly winds and overcast conditions preventing further intensification, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 27°C highs but allowing occasional peaks near 30°C. Model consensus from CMA and global forecasts aligned precisely on this cap, with no notable divergences. Resolution hinges on final CMA records; a challenge would require an anomalous unreported surge in late-evening data, deemed highly improbable as temperatures decline nocturnally.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$58,444结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ET已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15, 2026, reaching 31°C or below, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) showing peak readings capped at 31°C amid persistent cloudy skies that limited solar heating. Real-time data from Beijing Capital International Airport and city stations confirmed daytime highs stabilizing around 30-31°C, with southerly winds and overcast conditions preventing further intensification, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 27°C highs but allowing occasional peaks near 30°C. Model consensus from CMA and global forecasts aligned precisely on this cap, with no notable divergences. Resolution hinges on final CMA records; a challenge would require an anomalous unreported surge in late-evening data, deemed highly improbable as temperatures decline nocturnally.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题