Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 17°C as the highest temperature in Ankara on May 15 at 100% implied probability, driven by official observations and forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), which report a midday peak of 17°C under persistent cloud cover and morning showers that limited solar heating. Hourly data from Esenboğa Airport METARs and local stations confirm temperatures stabilizing below 18°C amid cool northerly winds and high humidity, aligning with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing suppressed daytime highs. This marks a departure from mid-May climatology, where averages hover around 22°C. Realistic challenges include late-afternoon clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge readings to 18°C, though diminishing daylight and ongoing overcast conditions make this improbable; final MGM daily summary expected soon will resolve the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Ankara on May 15?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 15?
17°C 100.0%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$52,759 交易量
$52,759 交易量
2026-05-15
17°C
100%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
17°C 100.0%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$52,759 交易量
$52,759 交易量
2026-05-15
17°C
$8,288 交易量
100%
18°C
$6,449 交易量
<1%
19°C
$4,268 交易量
<1%
20°C
$4,551 交易量
<1%
21°C or higher
$6,715 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 17°C as the highest temperature in Ankara on May 15 at 100% implied probability, driven by official observations and forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), which report a midday peak of 17°C under persistent cloud cover and morning showers that limited solar heating. Hourly data from Esenboğa Airport METARs and local stations confirm temperatures stabilizing below 18°C amid cool northerly winds and high humidity, aligning with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing suppressed daytime highs. This marks a departure from mid-May climatology, where averages hover around 22°C. Realistic challenges include late-afternoon clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge readings to 18°C, though diminishing daylight and ongoing overcast conditions make this improbable; final MGM daily summary expected soon will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$52,759结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 17°C as the highest temperature in Ankara on May 15 at 100% implied probability, driven by official observations and forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), which report a midday peak of 17°C under persistent cloud cover and morning showers that limited solar heating. Hourly data from Esenboğa Airport METARs and local stations confirm temperatures stabilizing below 18°C amid cool northerly winds and high humidity, aligning with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing suppressed daytime highs. This marks a departure from mid-May climatology, where averages hover around 22°C. Realistic challenges include late-afternoon clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge readings to 18°C, though diminishing daylight and ongoing overcast conditions make this improbable; final MGM daily summary expected soon will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$52,759结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 17°C as the highest temperature in Ankara on May 15 at 100% implied probability, driven by official observations and forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), which report a midday peak of 17°C under persistent cloud cover and morning showers that limited solar heating. Hourly data from Esenboğa Airport METARs and local stations confirm temperatures stabilizing below 18°C amid cool northerly winds and high humidity, aligning with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing suppressed daytime highs. This marks a departure from mid-May climatology, where averages hover around 22°C. Realistic challenges include late-afternoon clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge readings to 18°C, though diminishing daylight and ongoing overcast conditions make this improbable; final MGM daily summary expected soon will resolve the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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