Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 35% probability for Munich's highest temperature reaching exactly 13°C on May 15, with 12°C (27%) and 14°C (24%) nearly tied amid model disagreements on cloud cover evolution. Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts cluster daytime highs in this narrow 12–14°C range under a persistent low-pressure trough ushering cool maritime air and overcast skies, limiting solar insolation and surface heating—recent observations confirm similar muted peaks of 11–13°C. GFS runs favor cooler 12°C outcomes with persistent stratus clouds, while ECMWF perturbations allow slight warming to 14°C if afternoon breaks emerge. This genuine uncertainty reflects typical 1–2°C spreads in 24-hour forecasts; monitor DWD hourly data and satellite imagery for cloud thinning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Munich on May 15?
Highest temperature in Munich on May 15?
13°C 36%
14°C 27%
12°C 11%
15°C 10%
最新
$13,278 交易量
最新
$13,278 交易量
2026-05-15
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
11%
13°C
36%
14°C
27%
15°C
10%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
1%
13°C 36%
14°C 27%
12°C 11%
15°C 10%
最新
$13,278 交易量
最新
$13,278 交易量
2026-05-15
7°C or below
$807 交易量
<1%
8°C
$573 交易量
<1%
9°C
$807 交易量
1%
10°C
$322 交易量
1%
11°C
$697 交易量
3%
12°C
$1,703 交易量
11%
13°C
$1,001 交易量
36%
14°C
$1,780 交易量
27%
15°C
$1,650 交易量
10%
16°C
$2,517 交易量
2%
17°C or higher
$2,295 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 35% probability for Munich's highest temperature reaching exactly 13°C on May 15, with 12°C (27%) and 14°C (24%) nearly tied amid model disagreements on cloud cover evolution. Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts cluster daytime highs in this narrow 12–14°C range under a persistent low-pressure trough ushering cool maritime air and overcast skies, limiting solar insolation and surface heating—recent observations confirm similar muted peaks of 11–13°C. GFS runs favor cooler 12°C outcomes with persistent stratus clouds, while ECMWF perturbations allow slight warming to 14°C if afternoon breaks emerge. This genuine uncertainty reflects typical 1–2°C spreads in 24-hour forecasts; monitor DWD hourly data and satellite imagery for cloud thinning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$13,278结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 35% probability for Munich's highest temperature reaching exactly 13°C on May 15, with 12°C (27%) and 14°C (24%) nearly tied amid model disagreements on cloud cover evolution. Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts cluster daytime highs in this narrow 12–14°C range under a persistent low-pressure trough ushering cool maritime air and overcast skies, limiting solar insolation and surface heating—recent observations confirm similar muted peaks of 11–13°C. GFS runs favor cooler 12°C outcomes with persistent stratus clouds, while ECMWF perturbations allow slight warming to 14°C if afternoon breaks emerge. This genuine uncertainty reflects typical 1–2°C spreads in 24-hour forecasts; monitor DWD hourly data and satellite imagery for cloud thinning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$13,278结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket implies a 35% probability for Munich's highest temperature reaching exactly 13°C on May 15, with 12°C (27%) and 14°C (24%) nearly tied amid model disagreements on cloud cover evolution. Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts cluster daytime highs in this narrow 12–14°C range under a persistent low-pressure trough ushering cool maritime air and overcast skies, limiting solar insolation and surface heating—recent observations confirm similar muted peaks of 11–13°C. GFS runs favor cooler 12°C outcomes with persistent stratus clouds, while ECMWF perturbations allow slight warming to 14°C if afternoon breaks emerge. This genuine uncertainty reflects typical 1–2°C spreads in 24-hour forecasts; monitor DWD hourly data and satellite imagery for cloud thinning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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