Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 57.5% probability for a 17°C maximum temperature at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport today, closely tracking AEMET's official forecast of 16°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds at 20 km/h ushering cooler air and capping daytime heating. Yesterday's observed highs reached 23°C amid clearer conditions, but an incoming unstable weather pattern with 15-35% precipitation risk and persistent cloud cover—per ECMWF and GFS model ensembles—has reduced solar insolation, slowing warming from morning lows near 10°C. Early observations show Barajas at 15.9°C by mid-morning, with potential for minor upside to 18°C (17.5% odds) if breaks develop, though below May's climatological average of 23°C; real-time airport data will clarify resolution by evening.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Madrid on May 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 15?
17°C 57%
16°C 23%
18°C 18%
19°C 2.7%
$48,642 交易量
$48,642 交易量
2026-05-15
16°C
23%
17°C
57%
18°C
18%
19°C
3%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
17°C 57%
16°C 23%
18°C 18%
19°C 2.7%
$48,642 交易量
$48,642 交易量
2026-05-15
16°C
$4,671 交易量
23%
17°C
$4,546 交易量
57%
18°C
$4,186 交易量
18%
19°C
$4,217 交易量
3%
20°C
$4,874 交易量
1%
21°C
$4,341 交易量
<1%
22°C
$3,417 交易量
<1%
23°C or higher
$4,431 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 57.5% probability for a 17°C maximum temperature at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport today, closely tracking AEMET's official forecast of 16°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds at 20 km/h ushering cooler air and capping daytime heating. Yesterday's observed highs reached 23°C amid clearer conditions, but an incoming unstable weather pattern with 15-35% precipitation risk and persistent cloud cover—per ECMWF and GFS model ensembles—has reduced solar insolation, slowing warming from morning lows near 10°C. Early observations show Barajas at 15.9°C by mid-morning, with potential for minor upside to 18°C (17.5% odds) if breaks develop, though below May's climatological average of 23°C; real-time airport data will clarify resolution by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
交易量
$48,642结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 57.5% probability for a 17°C maximum temperature at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport today, closely tracking AEMET's official forecast of 16°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds at 20 km/h ushering cooler air and capping daytime heating. Yesterday's observed highs reached 23°C amid clearer conditions, but an incoming unstable weather pattern with 15-35% precipitation risk and persistent cloud cover—per ECMWF and GFS model ensembles—has reduced solar insolation, slowing warming from morning lows near 10°C. Early observations show Barajas at 15.9°C by mid-morning, with potential for minor upside to 18°C (17.5% odds) if breaks develop, though below May's climatological average of 23°C; real-time airport data will clarify resolution by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$48,642结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket implies a 57.5% probability for a 17°C maximum temperature at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport today, closely tracking AEMET's official forecast of 16°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds at 20 km/h ushering cooler air and capping daytime heating. Yesterday's observed highs reached 23°C amid clearer conditions, but an incoming unstable weather pattern with 15-35% precipitation risk and persistent cloud cover—per ECMWF and GFS model ensembles—has reduced solar insolation, slowing warming from morning lows near 10°C. Early observations show Barajas at 15.9°C by mid-morning, with potential for minor upside to 18°C (17.5% odds) if breaks develop, though below May's climatological average of 23°C; real-time airport data will clarify resolution by evening.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题