Recent National Weather Service forecasts for New York City indicate the overnight low on May 16 will likely settle in the mid-50s Fahrenheit, driven by a moderating airmass with light southerly flow and partly cloudy conditions that limit strong radiative cooling. Model consensus from the GFS and ECMWF shows minimum temperatures near 54–56°F at Central Park, consistent with seasonal averages for mid-May when dew points hover around 45–50°F and winds remain under 10 mph overnight. This positioning explains the tight clustering between the 54–55°F and 56–57°F bins, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind speed could push readings across the threshold. Traders are monitoring the 8 pm–8 am window for any late adjustments from updated model runs before the official NWS climatological report finalizes the daily minimum.