The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 16–17°C for London’s maximum temperature on June 11 stems from the latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs in that narrow band under a mix of broken cloud and light westerly flow. Recent model runs have narrowed the spread after an early-June cool spell gave way to more typical early-summer conditions, with limited daytime heating from modest insolation and no strong warm advection. Uncertainty between 16°C and 17°C hinges on the precise timing and extent of any afternoon clearing versus lingering low cloud, while an 18°C outcome would require stronger high pressure and clearer skies than currently indicated. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely tighten these probabilities further.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6月11日伦敦气温最高？
6月11日伦敦气温最高？
17°C 42%
16°C 31%
18°C 16%
15°C 7%
最新
$16,110 交易量
最新
$16,110 交易量
2026-06-11
9°C或以下
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
7%
16°C
31%
17°C
42%
18°C
16%
19°C或更高
6%
17°C 42%
16°C 31%
18°C 16%
15°C 7%
最新
$16,110 交易量
最新
$16,110 交易量
2026-06-11
9°C或以下
$521 交易量
<1%
10°C
$1,005 交易量
<1%
11°C
$830 交易量
<1%
12°C
$774 交易量
<1%
13°C
$1,357 交易量
<1%
14°C
$2,372 交易量
1%
15°C
$1,798 交易量
7%
16°C
$1,720 交易量
31%
17°C
$1,497 交易量
42%
18°C
$1,971 交易量
16%
19°C或更高
$2,392 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 16–17°C for London’s maximum temperature on June 11 stems from the latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs in that narrow band under a mix of broken cloud and light westerly flow. Recent model runs have narrowed the spread after an early-June cool spell gave way to more typical early-summer conditions, with limited daytime heating from modest insolation and no strong warm advection. Uncertainty between 16°C and 17°C hinges on the precise timing and extent of any afternoon clearing versus lingering low cloud, while an 18°C outcome would require stronger high pressure and clearer skies than currently indicated. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely tighten these probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 9, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$16,110结束日期
2026-06-11市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 1:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 16–17°C for London’s maximum temperature on June 11 stems from the latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs in that narrow band under a mix of broken cloud and light westerly flow. Recent model runs have narrowed the spread after an early-June cool spell gave way to more typical early-summer conditions, with limited daytime heating from modest insolation and no strong warm advection. Uncertainty between 16°C and 17°C hinges on the precise timing and extent of any afternoon clearing versus lingering low cloud, while an 18°C outcome would require stronger high pressure and clearer skies than currently indicated. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely tighten these probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$16,110结束日期
2026-06-11市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 1:03 AM ETThe tight clustering of market-implied odds around 16–17°C for London’s maximum temperature on June 11 stems from the latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs in that narrow band under a mix of broken cloud and light westerly flow. Recent model runs have narrowed the spread after an early-June cool spell gave way to more typical early-summer conditions, with limited daytime heating from modest insolation and no strong warm advection. Uncertainty between 16°C and 17°C hinges on the precise timing and extent of any afternoon clearing versus lingering low cloud, while an 18°C outcome would require stronger high pressure and clearer skies than currently indicated. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely tighten these probabilities further.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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