Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows that magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes occur at a steady average rate of roughly six per week, consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution observed worldwide. This established baseline, drawn from decades of cataloged data across tectonic boundaries, directly supports the market’s 64.5% implied probability for exactly six events during May 11–17. No significant aftershock sequences, volcanic unrest, or unusual activity along major fault systems such as the Pacific Ring of Fire have appeared in recent official reports, leaving probabilities anchored near historical norms. Final USGS tallies will resolve the market once all detections and magnitude revisions are complete.