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icon for 今年还有多少人离开特朗普内阁?

今年还有多少人离开特朗普内阁?

icon for 今年还有多少人离开特朗普内阁?

今年还有多少人离开特朗普内阁?

2 32%

1 27%

7+ 23%

3 22%

Polymarket
最新

2 32%

1 27%

7+ 23%

3 22%

Polymarket
最新

0

$371 交易量

9%

1

$205 交易量

28%

2

$234 交易量

22%

3

$159 交易量

26%

4

$193 交易量

19%

5

$190 交易量

18%

6

$227 交易量

18%

7+

$1,285 交易量

23%

This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent departures of three Cabinet secretaries since March—Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer—have driven trader focus on ongoing turnover in the Trump administration. These exits stemmed from policy pressures, congressional scrutiny, and internal friction during early second-term implementation, including border enforcement and legal priorities. With roughly seven months remaining in 2026, the tight spread across one, two, or three additional departures reflects uncertainty over whether these changes signal isolated adjustments or broader instability tied to foreign policy demands and agency management. Scheduled Senate oversight, potential executive actions, and any further performance reviews could accelerate or limit future exits before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
交易量
$2,865
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent departures of three Cabinet secretaries since March—Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer—have driven trader focus on ongoing turnover in the Trump administration. These exits stemmed from policy pressures, congressional scrutiny, and internal friction during early second-term implementation, including border enforcement and legal priorities. With roughly seven months remaining in 2026, the tight spread across one, two, or three additional departures reflects uncertainty over whether these changes signal isolated adjustments or broader instability tied to foreign policy demands and agency management. Scheduled Senate oversight, potential executive actions, and any further performance reviews could accelerate or limit future exits before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
交易量
$2,865
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"今年还有多少人离开特朗普内阁?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 8 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"1",概率为 28%,其次是"3",概率为 26%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 28¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 28%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"今年还有多少人离开特朗普内阁?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Apr 21, 2026上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"今年还有多少人离开特朗普内阁?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 8 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"今年还有多少人离开特朗普内阁?"的当前领先者是"1",概率为 28%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 28%。紧随其后的结果是"3",概率为 26%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"今年还有多少人离开特朗普内阁?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。