**Seven Republican Senators are not seeking re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 61% consensus on that outcome.** As of mid-June 2026, Ballotpedia and other trackers confirm seven GOP incumbents among the eleven total senators declining to run again, exceeding typical historical rates for the party in a single cycle. Announcements began in mid-2025 with Thom Tillis (NC) and Joni Ernst (IA), followed by Mitch McConnell (KY), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Steve Daines (MT), and Alan Armstrong (OK) into early 2026. Primary defeats for Bill Cassidy (LA) and John Cornyn (TX) in May added to the total without new retirements since March. Factors include age, primary pressure from Trump-aligned challengers, and departures amid post-2024 shifts in Senate leadership and policy priorities. No additional Republican exits have been confirmed recently, keeping seven as the baseline while leaving room for late developments before filing deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7 64%
5 7.8%
11 5.7%
8 5.1%
$77,998 交易量
$77,998 交易量
2026-08-31
少于5人
1%
5
8%
6
4%
7
64%
8
5%
9
1%
10
4%
11
6%
12人以上
1%
7 64%
5 7.8%
11 5.7%
8 5.1%
$77,998 交易量
$77,998 交易量
2026-08-31
少于5人
$22,362 交易量
1%
5
$17,009 交易量
8%
6
$26,639 交易量
4%
7
$2,172 交易量
64%
8
$1,614 交易量
5%
9
$1,490 交易量
1%
10
$1,337 交易量
4%
11
$938 交易量
6%
12人以上
$4,438 交易量
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican Senators are not seeking re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 61% consensus on that outcome.** As of mid-June 2026, Ballotpedia and other trackers confirm seven GOP incumbents among the eleven total senators declining to run again, exceeding typical historical rates for the party in a single cycle.
Announcements began in mid-2025 with Thom Tillis (NC) and Joni Ernst (IA), followed by Mitch McConnell (KY), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Steve Daines (MT), and Alan Armstrong (OK) into early 2026. Primary defeats for Bill Cassidy (LA) and John Cornyn (TX) in May added to the total without new retirements since March. Factors include age, primary pressure from Trump-aligned challengers, and departures amid post-2024 shifts in Senate leadership and policy priorities. No additional Republican exits have been confirmed recently, keeping seven as the baseline while leaving room for late developments before filing deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$77,998结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican Senators are not seeking re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 61% consensus on that outcome.** As of mid-June 2026, Ballotpedia and other trackers confirm seven GOP incumbents among the eleven total senators declining to run again, exceeding typical historical rates for the party in a single cycle.
Announcements began in mid-2025 with Thom Tillis (NC) and Joni Ernst (IA), followed by Mitch McConnell (KY), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Steve Daines (MT), and Alan Armstrong (OK) into early 2026. Primary defeats for Bill Cassidy (LA) and John Cornyn (TX) in May added to the total without new retirements since March. Factors include age, primary pressure from Trump-aligned challengers, and departures amid post-2024 shifts in Senate leadership and policy priorities. No additional Republican exits have been confirmed recently, keeping seven as the baseline while leaving room for late developments before filing deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$77,998结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican Senators are not seeking re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 61% consensus on that outcome.** As of mid-June 2026, Ballotpedia and other trackers confirm seven GOP incumbents among the eleven total senators declining to run again, exceeding typical historical rates for the party in a single cycle. Announcements began in mid-2025 with Thom Tillis (NC) and Joni Ernst (IA), followed by Mitch McConnell (KY), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Steve Daines (MT), and Alan Armstrong (OK) into early 2026. Primary defeats for Bill Cassidy (LA) and John Cornyn (TX) in May added to the total without new retirements since March. Factors include age, primary pressure from Trump-aligned challengers, and departures amid post-2024 shifts in Senate leadership and policy priorities. No additional Republican exits have been confirmed recently, keeping seven as the baseline while leaving room for late developments before filing deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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