Lisa Murkowski’s continued registration as a Republican and absence of any formal departure announcement sustain the 91.5% “No” consensus. Past 2025 comments expressing openness to independent status or conditional caucusing with Democrats never translated into a party switch, and she has repeatedly reaffirmed her preference to remain registered Republican while advancing Alaska-specific priorities. Recent Senate actions, including support for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act after securing state concessions and consistent alignment with the administration on roughly 85% of major votes, reinforce institutional ties without crossing into independent or Democratic affiliation. With her term extending to 2028 and no scheduled events forcing a binary choice before year-end, traders view a 2026 exit as unlikely absent a major catalyst.