Ongoing rainfall and persistent cloud cover over Tokyo, driven by northeasterly flow ahead of a frontal boundary, have suppressed nocturnal radiative cooling and kept surface temperatures from dropping sharply, supporting trader consensus around 20–21°C as the day's minimum. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate dew points near 18–19°C with light winds, conditions that typically yield overnight lows 1–2°C above clear-sky baselines for mid-September. Urban heat retention in the Tokyo metropolitan area adds a further buffer against deeper cooling. With the market split nearly evenly, resolution hinges on the precise timing of any clearing or wind shift in the final hours before dawn, as even modest increases in mixing could hold the low at 21°C while continued steady rain favors 20°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月16日东京最低气温？
9月16日东京最低气温？
21°C 100.0%
16°C或以下 <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$6,349 交易量
$6,349 交易量
2026-09-16
16°C或以下
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
是
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C或更高
否
21°C 100.0%
16°C或以下 <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$6,349 交易量
$6,349 交易量
2026-09-16
16°C或以下
$68 交易量
否
17°C
$228 交易量
否
18°C
$191 交易量
否
19°C
$1,228 交易量
否
20°C
$1,171 交易量
否
21°C
$2,267 交易量
是
22°C
$314 交易量
否
23°C
$16 交易量
否
24°C
$188 交易量
否
25°C
$489 交易量
否
26°C或更高
$188 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing rainfall and persistent cloud cover over Tokyo, driven by northeasterly flow ahead of a frontal boundary, have suppressed nocturnal radiative cooling and kept surface temperatures from dropping sharply, supporting trader consensus around 20–21°C as the day's minimum. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate dew points near 18–19°C with light winds, conditions that typically yield overnight lows 1–2°C above clear-sky baselines for mid-September. Urban heat retention in the Tokyo metropolitan area adds a further buffer against deeper cooling. With the market split nearly evenly, resolution hinges on the precise timing of any clearing or wind shift in the final hours before dawn, as even modest increases in mixing could hold the low at 21°C while continued steady rain favors 20°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$6,349结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing rainfall and persistent cloud cover over Tokyo, driven by northeasterly flow ahead of a frontal boundary, have suppressed nocturnal radiative cooling and kept surface temperatures from dropping sharply, supporting trader consensus around 20–21°C as the day's minimum. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate dew points near 18–19°C with light winds, conditions that typically yield overnight lows 1–2°C above clear-sky baselines for mid-September. Urban heat retention in the Tokyo metropolitan area adds a further buffer against deeper cooling. With the market split nearly evenly, resolution hinges on the precise timing of any clearing or wind shift in the final hours before dawn, as even modest increases in mixing could hold the low at 21°C while continued steady rain favors 20°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$6,349结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Ongoing rainfall and persistent cloud cover over Tokyo, driven by northeasterly flow ahead of a frontal boundary, have suppressed nocturnal radiative cooling and kept surface temperatures from dropping sharply, supporting trader consensus around 20–21°C as the day's minimum. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate dew points near 18–19°C with light winds, conditions that typically yield overnight lows 1–2°C above clear-sky baselines for mid-September. Urban heat retention in the Tokyo metropolitan area adds a further buffer against deeper cooling. With the market split nearly evenly, resolution hinges on the precise timing of any clearing or wind shift in the final hours before dawn, as even modest increases in mixing could hold the low at 21°C while continued steady rain favors 20°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题