**Current forecast models from sources like Yr.no and European meteorological services project overnight lows in Warsaw on September 18 around 11–13°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, consistent with typical mid-September radiative cooling when dew points hover near 9–11°C.** This positions single-digit outcomes like 8°C as plausible under clearer or drier conditions that enhance heat loss, while warmer scenarios above 15°C would require stronger advection of mild Atlantic air or increased cloud cover suppressing cooling. Recent days have featured mild temperatures with precipitation on the 17th, contributing to market-implied odds that spread probability across 5–15°C ranges and reflect model ensemble spreads rather than a single deterministic path. Upcoming evening observations and updated runs will clarify whether the minimum settles near the 8°C consensus or shifts with final steering patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月18日华沙最低气温？
9月18日华沙最低气温？
5°C或以下 59%
15°C或更高 59%
8°C 43%
9°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
5°C或以下
59%
6°C
17%
7°C
21%
8°C
43%
9°C
39%
10°C
38%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
31%
14°C
14%
15°C或更高
59%
5°C或以下 59%
15°C或更高 59%
8°C 43%
9°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
5°C或以下
$0 交易量
59%
6°C
$0 交易量
17%
7°C
$76 交易量
21%
8°C
$67 交易量
43%
9°C
$0 交易量
39%
10°C
$0 交易量
38%
11°C
$0 交易量
39%
12°C
$0 交易量
39%
13°C
$0 交易量
31%
14°C
$0 交易量
14%
15°C或更高
$0 交易量
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models from sources like Yr.no and European meteorological services project overnight lows in Warsaw on September 18 around 11–13°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, consistent with typical mid-September radiative cooling when dew points hover near 9–11°C.**
This positions single-digit outcomes like 8°C as plausible under clearer or drier conditions that enhance heat loss, while warmer scenarios above 15°C would require stronger advection of mild Atlantic air or increased cloud cover suppressing cooling. Recent days have featured mild temperatures with precipitation on the 17th, contributing to market-implied odds that spread probability across 5–15°C ranges and reflect model ensemble spreads rather than a single deterministic path. Upcoming evening observations and updated runs will clarify whether the minimum settles near the 8°C consensus or shifts with final steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$142结束日期
2026-09-18市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models from sources like Yr.no and European meteorological services project overnight lows in Warsaw on September 18 around 11–13°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, consistent with typical mid-September radiative cooling when dew points hover near 9–11°C.**
This positions single-digit outcomes like 8°C as plausible under clearer or drier conditions that enhance heat loss, while warmer scenarios above 15°C would require stronger advection of mild Atlantic air or increased cloud cover suppressing cooling. Recent days have featured mild temperatures with precipitation on the 17th, contributing to market-implied odds that spread probability across 5–15°C ranges and reflect model ensemble spreads rather than a single deterministic path. Upcoming evening observations and updated runs will clarify whether the minimum settles near the 8°C consensus or shifts with final steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$142结束日期
2026-09-18市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Current forecast models from sources like Yr.no and European meteorological services project overnight lows in Warsaw on September 18 around 11–13°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, consistent with typical mid-September radiative cooling when dew points hover near 9–11°C.** This positions single-digit outcomes like 8°C as plausible under clearer or drier conditions that enhance heat loss, while warmer scenarios above 15°C would require stronger advection of mild Atlantic air or increased cloud cover suppressing cooling. Recent days have featured mild temperatures with precipitation on the 17th, contributing to market-implied odds that spread probability across 5–15°C ranges and reflect model ensemble spreads rather than a single deterministic path. Upcoming evening observations and updated runs will clarify whether the minimum settles near the 8°C consensus or shifts with final steering patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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