Recent forecast models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS show a frontal boundary crossing Poland on September 17, delivering widespread rain and cloud cover that should moderate overnight cooling in Warsaw. Current runs point to a daily minimum near 11–14°C, with precipitation timing and wind shifts as key variables that could nudge readings a few degrees lower if skies clear briefly or higher if clouds and moisture linger. This setup aligns with mid-September climatology but features model spread on exact low temperatures, driving closely matched market-implied odds between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes while centering probability on the 11–16°C range. Updated model guidance and observational data from the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月17日华沙最低气温？
9月17日华沙最低气温？
7°C或以下 100%
17°C或更高 82%
8°C 39%
9°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-17
7°C或以下
100%
8°C
39%
9°C
39%
10°C
39%
11°C
39%
12°C
28%
13°C
22%
14°C
21%
15°C
39%
16°C
39%
17°C或更高
82%
7°C或以下 100%
17°C或更高 82%
8°C 39%
9°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-17
7°C或以下
$0 交易量
100%
8°C
$0 交易量
39%
9°C
$0 交易量
39%
10°C
$0 交易量
39%
11°C
$0 交易量
39%
12°C
$0 交易量
28%
13°C
$0 交易量
22%
14°C
$0 交易量
21%
15°C
$0 交易量
39%
16°C
$0 交易量
39%
17°C或更高
$0 交易量
82%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS show a frontal boundary crossing Poland on September 17, delivering widespread rain and cloud cover that should moderate overnight cooling in Warsaw. Current runs point to a daily minimum near 11–14°C, with precipitation timing and wind shifts as key variables that could nudge readings a few degrees lower if skies clear briefly or higher if clouds and moisture linger. This setup aligns with mid-September climatology but features model spread on exact low temperatures, driving closely matched market-implied odds between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes while centering probability on the 11–16°C range. Updated model guidance and observational data from the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-17市场开放时间
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS show a frontal boundary crossing Poland on September 17, delivering widespread rain and cloud cover that should moderate overnight cooling in Warsaw. Current runs point to a daily minimum near 11–14°C, with precipitation timing and wind shifts as key variables that could nudge readings a few degrees lower if skies clear briefly or higher if clouds and moisture linger. This setup aligns with mid-September climatology but features model spread on exact low temperatures, driving closely matched market-implied odds between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes while centering probability on the 11–16°C range. Updated model guidance and observational data from the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-17市场开放时间
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent forecast models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS show a frontal boundary crossing Poland on September 17, delivering widespread rain and cloud cover that should moderate overnight cooling in Warsaw. Current runs point to a daily minimum near 11–14°C, with precipitation timing and wind shifts as key variables that could nudge readings a few degrees lower if skies clear briefly or higher if clouds and moisture linger. This setup aligns with mid-September climatology but features model spread on exact low temperatures, driving closely matched market-implied odds between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes while centering probability on the 11–16°C range. Updated model guidance and observational data from the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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