Latest meteorological model consensus from European forecasting centers centers the most likely maximum temperature in Paris on September 15 around 32°C, aligning with the 50.5% market-implied probability. This positioning reflects a transient warm air mass advected from the south under relatively clear skies and light winds, promoting daytime radiative heating without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures. Ensemble spreads show secondary support for 33°C at 27.5% probability, while cooler outcomes below 31°C carry lower weight due to limited northerly flow or increased moisture in recent runs. Updated short-range guidance released in the past 24 hours has stabilized these projections, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any frontal passage or local urban heat effects.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月15日巴黎气温最高？
9月15日巴黎气温最高？
32°C 51%
33°C 28%
31°C 11%
34°C 8%
最新
$11,699 交易量
最新
$11,699 交易量
2026-09-15
26°C或以下
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
6%
31°C
11%
32°C
51%
33°C
28%
34°C
8%
35°C
1%
36°C或更高
<1%
32°C 51%
33°C 28%
31°C 11%
34°C 8%
最新
$11,699 交易量
最新
$11,699 交易量
2026-09-15
26°C或以下
$522 交易量
<1%
27°C
$441 交易量
<1%
28°C
$493 交易量
<1%
29°C
$637 交易量
2%
30°C
$1,284 交易量
6%
31°C
$1,763 交易量
11%
32°C
$2,592 交易量
51%
33°C
$1,564 交易量
28%
34°C
$1,557 交易量
8%
35°C
$622 交易量
1%
36°C或更高
$262 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest meteorological model consensus from European forecasting centers centers the most likely maximum temperature in Paris on September 15 around 32°C, aligning with the 50.5% market-implied probability. This positioning reflects a transient warm air mass advected from the south under relatively clear skies and light winds, promoting daytime radiative heating without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures. Ensemble spreads show secondary support for 33°C at 27.5% probability, while cooler outcomes below 31°C carry lower weight due to limited northerly flow or increased moisture in recent runs. Updated short-range guidance released in the past 24 hours has stabilized these projections, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any frontal passage or local urban heat effects.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$11,699结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest meteorological model consensus from European forecasting centers centers the most likely maximum temperature in Paris on September 15 around 32°C, aligning with the 50.5% market-implied probability. This positioning reflects a transient warm air mass advected from the south under relatively clear skies and light winds, promoting daytime radiative heating without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures. Ensemble spreads show secondary support for 33°C at 27.5% probability, while cooler outcomes below 31°C carry lower weight due to limited northerly flow or increased moisture in recent runs. Updated short-range guidance released in the past 24 hours has stabilized these projections, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any frontal passage or local urban heat effects.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$11,699结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETLatest meteorological model consensus from European forecasting centers centers the most likely maximum temperature in Paris on September 15 around 32°C, aligning with the 50.5% market-implied probability. This positioning reflects a transient warm air mass advected from the south under relatively clear skies and light winds, promoting daytime radiative heating without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures. Ensemble spreads show secondary support for 33°C at 27.5% probability, while cooler outcomes below 31°C carry lower weight due to limited northerly flow or increased moisture in recent runs. Updated short-range guidance released in the past 24 hours has stabilized these projections, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any frontal passage or local urban heat effects.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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