Recent Banxico and Citi analyst surveys place Mexico’s 2026 year-end headline inflation at a median of 3.88–3.90 percent, with core near 3.80 percent, directly supporting the market’s leading 3.50–3.99 percent outcome at nearly 60 percent implied probability. September 2026 CPI rose to 3.45 percent year-over-year on non-core pressures from energy and produce, while October readings are expected near 3.66 percent. Banxico’s latest projections lifted fourth-quarter 2026 forecasts to 3.7 percent amid peso depreciation risks and stable long-term expectations above the 3 percent target. Modest GDP growth forecasts of 1.5–1.8 percent and the recent 25-basis-point rate cut to 6.25 percent reflect ongoing economic slack that could limit further upside, though persistent core stickiness and external factors keep the 4.00–4.49 percent band at 23 percent.