Recent Labour Party turmoil following disappointing local election results has intensified speculation over Keir Starmer’s future, driving trader consensus toward Andy Burnham as the leading candidate for next prime minister in 2026. Burnham’s strong polling among party members, combined with his allies’ plans for a swift return to Parliament via the Makerfield by-election expected in June, has positioned him ahead of other contenders. Wes Streeting’s recent cabinet resignation and Angela Rayner’s resolution of prior tax matters have added to the list of potential challengers, while the market’s “no change” outcome reflects uncertainty over whether a leadership contest will conclude before year-end. Historical precedent for swift internal shifts and the upcoming by-election timeline further shape these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于安迪·伯纳姆 56.3%
2026年没有下任首相 13%
安吉拉·雷纳 11%
韦斯·斯特里廷 10%
$7,249,501 交易量
$7,249,501 交易量
安迪·伯纳姆
56%
2026年没有下任首相
13%
安吉拉·雷纳
11%
韦斯·斯特里廷
10%
埃德·米利班德
7%
Al Carns
2%
奈杰尔·法拉奇
1%
沙巴娜·马哈茂德
1%
伊薇特·库珀
1%
露西·鲍威尔
<1%
鲁珀特·洛伊
<1%
雷切尔·里夫斯
<1%
凯米·巴德诺克
<1%
鲍里斯·约翰逊
<1%
埃德·戴维
<1%
布里奇特·菲利普森
<1%
罗伯特·詹里克
<1%
大卫·拉米
<1%
詹姆斯·克莱弗利
<1%
达伦·琼斯
<1%
约翰·希利
<1%
安迪·伯纳姆 56.3%
2026年没有下任首相 13%
安吉拉·雷纳 11%
韦斯·斯特里廷 10%
$7,249,501 交易量
$7,249,501 交易量
安迪·伯纳姆
56%
2026年没有下任首相
13%
安吉拉·雷纳
11%
韦斯·斯特里廷
10%
埃德·米利班德
7%
Al Carns
2%
奈杰尔·法拉奇
1%
沙巴娜·马哈茂德
1%
伊薇特·库珀
1%
露西·鲍威尔
<1%
鲁珀特·洛伊
<1%
雷切尔·里夫斯
<1%
凯米·巴德诺克
<1%
鲍里斯·约翰逊
<1%
埃德·戴维
<1%
布里奇特·菲利普森
<1%
罗伯特·詹里克
<1%
大卫·拉米
<1%
詹姆斯·克莱弗利
<1%
达伦·琼斯
<1%
约翰·希利
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Labour Party turmoil following disappointing local election results has intensified speculation over Keir Starmer’s future, driving trader consensus toward Andy Burnham as the leading candidate for next prime minister in 2026. Burnham’s strong polling among party members, combined with his allies’ plans for a swift return to Parliament via the Makerfield by-election expected in June, has positioned him ahead of other contenders. Wes Streeting’s recent cabinet resignation and Angela Rayner’s resolution of prior tax matters have added to the list of potential challengers, while the market’s “no change” outcome reflects uncertainty over whether a leadership contest will conclude before year-end. Historical precedent for swift internal shifts and the upcoming by-election timeline further shape these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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