China's central bank has maintained its key loan prime rates unchanged for 15 consecutive months as of the August 2026 fixing, with the one-year rate at 3.00 percent and the five-year at 3.50 percent. This pattern aligns with trader expectations for no policy shift by September 30, reflected in the 87 percent implied probability of no change. Policymakers have prioritized stability despite soft domestic demand indicators, opting against broad easing that could pressure bank margins or the currency. Earlier 2026 pledges for reserve requirement and rate reductions have not translated into near-term action, supporting the low odds of a decrease at 12.5 percent and near-zero chance of an increase. Scheduled monthly LPR settings through September provide limited scope for surprise moves absent major data shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于不变 87%
降息 13%
加息 <1%
$48,164 交易量
$48,164 交易量
2026-09-30
加息
1%
不变
87%
降息
13%
不变 87%
降息 13%
加息 <1%
$48,164 交易量
$48,164 交易量
2026-09-30
加息
$5,074 交易量
1%
不变
$21,825 交易量
87%
降息
$21,265 交易量
13%
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.China's central bank has maintained its key loan prime rates unchanged for 15 consecutive months as of the August 2026 fixing, with the one-year rate at 3.00 percent and the five-year at 3.50 percent. This pattern aligns with trader expectations for no policy shift by September 30, reflected in the 87 percent implied probability of no change. Policymakers have prioritized stability despite soft domestic demand indicators, opting against broad easing that could pressure bank margins or the currency. Earlier 2026 pledges for reserve requirement and rate reductions have not translated into near-term action, supporting the low odds of a decrease at 12.5 percent and near-zero chance of an increase. Scheduled monthly LPR settings through September provide limited scope for surprise moves absent major data shifts.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 30, 2026, 9:52 PM ET
交易量
$48,164结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 9:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.China's central bank has maintained its key loan prime rates unchanged for 15 consecutive months as of the August 2026 fixing, with the one-year rate at 3.00 percent and the five-year at 3.50 percent. This pattern aligns with trader expectations for no policy shift by September 30, reflected in the 87 percent implied probability of no change. Policymakers have prioritized stability despite soft domestic demand indicators, opting against broad easing that could pressure bank margins or the currency. Earlier 2026 pledges for reserve requirement and rate reductions have not translated into near-term action, supporting the low odds of a decrease at 12.5 percent and near-zero chance of an increase. Scheduled monthly LPR settings through September provide limited scope for surprise moves absent major data shifts.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
交易量
$48,164结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 9:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China's central bank has maintained its key loan prime rates unchanged for 15 consecutive months as of the August 2026 fixing, with the one-year rate at 3.00 percent and the five-year at 3.50 percent. This pattern aligns with trader expectations for no policy shift by September 30, reflected in the 87 percent implied probability of no change. Policymakers have prioritized stability despite soft domestic demand indicators, opting against broad easing that could pressure bank margins or the currency. Earlier 2026 pledges for reserve requirement and rate reductions have not translated into near-term action, supporting the low odds of a decrease at 12.5 percent and near-zero chance of an increase. Scheduled monthly LPR settings through September provide limited scope for surprise moves absent major data shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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