A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 anomalies reaching +1.8 to +2.7°C in early September 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant near-term driver pushing September global temperature anomalies toward the 1.30–1.39°C range above pre-industrial levels. This Pacific warming adds to the long-term greenhouse-gas trend, though the full global response often lags peak ENSO intensity by several months, creating uncertainty around exact September values amid natural variability in atmospheric circulation and ocean heat uptake. Model consensus from NOAA and others highlights elevated odds of above-normal land and ocean temperatures, yet divergence in short-term forecasts and dataset methodologies (such as those from Berkeley Earth or ERA5) keeps probabilities closely split between the leading bins. Final September observations, expected in early October, will clarify whether the anomaly settles near 1.30–1.34°C or edges higher.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年9月温度升高(ºC)
2026年9月温度升高(ºC)
1.30–1.34ºC 41%
<1.30ºC 40%
1.35–1.39ºC 36%
1.40–1.44ºC 32%
最新
最新
2026-10-09
<1.30ºC
40%
1.30–1.34ºC
41%
1.35–1.39ºC
36%
1.40–1.44ºC
32%
1.45–1.49ºC
29%
>1.49ºC
27%
1.30–1.34ºC 41%
<1.30ºC 40%
1.35–1.39ºC 36%
1.40–1.44ºC 32%
最新
最新
2026-10-09
<1.30ºC
$0 交易量
40%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 交易量
41%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 交易量
36%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 交易量
32%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 交易量
29%
>1.49ºC
$25 交易量
27%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 anomalies reaching +1.8 to +2.7°C in early September 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant near-term driver pushing September global temperature anomalies toward the 1.30–1.39°C range above pre-industrial levels. This Pacific warming adds to the long-term greenhouse-gas trend, though the full global response often lags peak ENSO intensity by several months, creating uncertainty around exact September values amid natural variability in atmospheric circulation and ocean heat uptake. Model consensus from NOAA and others highlights elevated odds of above-normal land and ocean temperatures, yet divergence in short-term forecasts and dataset methodologies (such as those from Berkeley Earth or ERA5) keeps probabilities closely split between the leading bins. Final September observations, expected in early October, will clarify whether the anomaly settles near 1.30–1.34°C or edges higher.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
交易量
$25结束日期
2026-10-10市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 anomalies reaching +1.8 to +2.7°C in early September 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant near-term driver pushing September global temperature anomalies toward the 1.30–1.39°C range above pre-industrial levels. This Pacific warming adds to the long-term greenhouse-gas trend, though the full global response often lags peak ENSO intensity by several months, creating uncertainty around exact September values amid natural variability in atmospheric circulation and ocean heat uptake. Model consensus from NOAA and others highlights elevated odds of above-normal land and ocean temperatures, yet divergence in short-term forecasts and dataset methodologies (such as those from Berkeley Earth or ERA5) keeps probabilities closely split between the leading bins. Final September observations, expected in early October, will clarify whether the anomaly settles near 1.30–1.34°C or edges higher.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$25结束日期
2026-10-10市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETA strengthening El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 anomalies reaching +1.8 to +2.7°C in early September 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant near-term driver pushing September global temperature anomalies toward the 1.30–1.39°C range above pre-industrial levels. This Pacific warming adds to the long-term greenhouse-gas trend, though the full global response often lags peak ENSO intensity by several months, creating uncertainty around exact September values amid natural variability in atmospheric circulation and ocean heat uptake. Model consensus from NOAA and others highlights elevated odds of above-normal land and ocean temperatures, yet divergence in short-term forecasts and dataset methodologies (such as those from Berkeley Earth or ERA5) keeps probabilities closely split between the leading bins. Final September observations, expected in early October, will clarify whether the anomaly settles near 1.30–1.34°C or edges higher.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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