**Unfavorable environmental conditions are driving the 79% market-implied probability that Tropical Storm Norbert will not reach hurricane strength.** As of the National Hurricane Center’s September 14 advisory, Norbert maintains 35-kt sustained winds with its center displaced southwest of deep convection due to increasing westerly vertical wind shear. Mid-level dry air is further limiting organized thunderstorm activity. Official intensity guidance projects steady weakening to 30 kt within 24 hours and post-tropical transition by Tuesday, with dissipation into a trough by mid-week. The system’s westward track under a subtropical ridge is carrying it into progressively less supportive conditions, consistent with historical Eastern Pacific patterns where shear and dry air rapidly suppress marginal storms. No model consensus supports intensification above the current tropical-storm threshold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于热带风暴诺伯特会增强飓风吗？
热带风暴诺伯特会增强飓风吗？
是
36% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-21
是
36% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-21
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.**Unfavorable environmental conditions are driving the 79% market-implied probability that Tropical Storm Norbert will not reach hurricane strength.** As of the National Hurricane Center’s September 14 advisory, Norbert maintains 35-kt sustained winds with its center displaced southwest of deep convection due to increasing westerly vertical wind shear. Mid-level dry air is further limiting organized thunderstorm activity. Official intensity guidance projects steady weakening to 30 kt within 24 hours and post-tropical transition by Tuesday, with dissipation into a trough by mid-week. The system’s westward track under a subtropical ridge is carrying it into progressively less supportive conditions, consistent with historical Eastern Pacific patterns where shear and dry air rapidly suppress marginal storms. No model consensus supports intensification above the current tropical-storm threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$313结束日期
2026-09-22市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.**Unfavorable environmental conditions are driving the 79% market-implied probability that Tropical Storm Norbert will not reach hurricane strength.** As of the National Hurricane Center’s September 14 advisory, Norbert maintains 35-kt sustained winds with its center displaced southwest of deep convection due to increasing westerly vertical wind shear. Mid-level dry air is further limiting organized thunderstorm activity. Official intensity guidance projects steady weakening to 30 kt within 24 hours and post-tropical transition by Tuesday, with dissipation into a trough by mid-week. The system’s westward track under a subtropical ridge is carrying it into progressively less supportive conditions, consistent with historical Eastern Pacific patterns where shear and dry air rapidly suppress marginal storms. No model consensus supports intensification above the current tropical-storm threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
交易量
$313结束日期
2026-09-22市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ET**Unfavorable environmental conditions are driving the 79% market-implied probability that Tropical Storm Norbert will not reach hurricane strength.** As of the National Hurricane Center’s September 14 advisory, Norbert maintains 35-kt sustained winds with its center displaced southwest of deep convection due to increasing westerly vertical wind shear. Mid-level dry air is further limiting organized thunderstorm activity. Official intensity guidance projects steady weakening to 30 kt within 24 hours and post-tropical transition by Tuesday, with dissipation into a trough by mid-week. The system’s westward track under a subtropical ridge is carrying it into progressively less supportive conditions, consistent with historical Eastern Pacific patterns where shear and dry air rapidly suppress marginal storms. No model consensus supports intensification above the current tropical-storm threshold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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