This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.US-Iran diplomacy has shifted rapidly since the June 17 memorandum of understanding that suspended hostilities, eased sanctions, and led to the formal lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on June 18. The agreement sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program, including dilution of its enriched uranium stockpile and expanded inspections, while restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance's recent statements on Iranian commitments to inspections have reinforced trader focus on de-escalation momentum, though any breakdown in negotiations or new military incidents could reopen questions about sanctions enforcement. Upcoming nuclear talks and regional reactions from Israel and Gulf states remain key variables that could influence assessments of future U.S. actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
US-Iran diplomacy has shifted rapidly since the June 17 memorandum of understanding that suspended hostilities, eased sanctions, and led to the formal lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on June 18. The agreement sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program, including dilution of its enriched uranium stockpile and expanded inspections, while restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance's recent statements on Iranian commitments to inspections have reinforced trader focus on de-escalation momentum, though any breakdown in negotiations or new military incidents could reopen questions about sanctions enforcement. Upcoming nuclear talks and regional reactions from Israel and Gulf states remain key variables that could influence assessments of future U.S. actions.
White House provides update on U.S. retaliatory strikes against Iran
The White House released a video update on retaliatory strikes against Iran, indicating ongoing military operations that may have contributed to market volatility around U.S. military posture.
Jul 9 2026
US and Iran Agree to Stand Down Following Intense Exchange of Military Strikes
December 31 jumps to 44%7%
After a heavy exchange of retaliatory strikes, U.S. and Iranian officials agreed to stand down, though the threat of a reimposed blockade kept market probabilities elevated.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Declares Ceasefire Over and Considers Reimposing Naval Blockade on Iran
August 31 surges to 35%15%
President Trump's public statements at the NATO summit regarding the potential return of the naval blockade caused a sharp increase in the August 31 contract's 'Yes' probability.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Declares Ceasefire Over and Considers Reimposing Naval Blockade on Iran
July 31 jumps to 25%14%
The July 31 contract also experienced a significant upward price movement following Trump's official statements that the naval blockade was back on the table.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Announces Reimposition of US Naval Blockade on Iran at NATO Summit
December 31 jumps to 37%9%
At the NATO summit in Turkey, President Trump declared that the ceasefire with Iran was over and officially announced that the U.S. was reimposing its naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Declares Ceasefire Over and Considers Reimposing Naval Blockade on Iran
December 31 jumps to 43%13%
At the NATO Summit in Turkey, President Donald Trump declared the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding effectively over and announced that the U.S. is considering reinstating its naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Jul 7 2026
US Ends Oil Export Sanctions Waiver Following Maritime Clashes with Iran
August 31 plunges to 28%21%
Following a series of drone attacks and exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. terminated the oil export waiver granted to Iran, threatening a return to the naval blockade.
Jul 7 2026
August 31 Blockade Probability Plummets on Sustained Peace Framework
August 31 plunges to 20%29%
The August 31 contract saw its price drop from 49% to 20% as the diplomatic framework mediated by Pakistan and Qatar continued to hold, reducing fears of a sudden return to hostilities.
Jul 2 2026
Iran Warns Against US Interference in Strait of Hormuz Management
December 31 dips to 28%3%
Iran's Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters warned of a swift response to any US interference in its efforts to manage the Strait of Hormuz, raising geopolitical tensions.
Jun 25 2026
US Central Command Deploys Second Marine Expeditionary Unit to Middle East
December 31 jumps to 38%5%
As peace talks paused for the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, CENTCOM announced that ships carrying a second Marine Expeditionary Unit were operating in the Middle East, signaling continued military readiness.
Jun 23 2026
Capito weighs in on Trump's Iran Memorandum of Understanding
August 31 drops to 38%11%
Senator Capito commented on the Trump administration's deal with Iran, noting that the U.S. would lift the naval blockade and end all sanctions as part of the agreement, which could have implications for maritime restrictions.
Jun 23 2026
Trump Announces Iran Agrees to Permanent Nuclear Inspections
December 31 jumps to 31%7%
President Donald Trump announced that Iran had agreed to permanent nuclear inspections, reinforcing the diplomatic path and reducing the likelihood of a renewed blockade.
Jun 22 2026
US Treasury Issues General License X Authorizing Iranian Oil Sales
December 31 plunges to 24%22%
Following the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding, the U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a broad 60-day authorization allowing Iranian oil exports, reinforcing the formal lifting of the maritime blockade.
Jun 22 2026
Iran and US Dispute Nuclear Inspection Discussions in Switzerland
December 31 plunges to 24%22%
Conflicting reports emerged regarding whether the nuclear issue was discussed during the Switzerland talks, creating brief uncertainty about the stability of the newly signed peace framework.
Jun 22 2026
Senate passes Iran War Powers Resolution limiting U.S. military actions
July 31 plunges to 21%24%
The Senate passed a War Powers Resolution that would bind the President to cease hostilities against Iran, signaling a major legislative effort to end the conflict and likely influencing market expectations about future U.S. military posture.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.US-Iran diplomacy has shifted rapidly since the June 17 memorandum of understanding that suspended hostilities, eased sanctions, and led to the formal lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on June 18. The agreement sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program, including dilution of its enriched uranium stockpile and expanded inspections, while restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance's recent statements on Iranian commitments to inspections have reinforced trader focus on de-escalation momentum, though any breakdown in negotiations or new military incidents could reopen questions about sanctions enforcement. Upcoming nuclear talks and regional reactions from Israel and Gulf states remain key variables that could influence assessments of future U.S. actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
US-Iran diplomacy has shifted rapidly since the June 17 memorandum of understanding that suspended hostilities, eased sanctions, and led to the formal lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on June 18. The agreement sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program, including dilution of its enriched uranium stockpile and expanded inspections, while restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance's recent statements on Iranian commitments to inspections have reinforced trader focus on de-escalation momentum, though any breakdown in negotiations or new military incidents could reopen questions about sanctions enforcement. Upcoming nuclear talks and regional reactions from Israel and Gulf states remain key variables that could influence assessments of future U.S. actions.
White House provides update on U.S. retaliatory strikes against Iran
The White House released a video update on retaliatory strikes against Iran, indicating ongoing military operations that may have contributed to market volatility around U.S. military posture.
Jul 9 2026
US and Iran Agree to Stand Down Following Intense Exchange of Military Strikes
December 31 jumps to 44%7%
After a heavy exchange of retaliatory strikes, U.S. and Iranian officials agreed to stand down, though the threat of a reimposed blockade kept market probabilities elevated.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Declares Ceasefire Over and Considers Reimposing Naval Blockade on Iran
August 31 surges to 35%15%
President Trump's public statements at the NATO summit regarding the potential return of the naval blockade caused a sharp increase in the August 31 contract's 'Yes' probability.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Declares Ceasefire Over and Considers Reimposing Naval Blockade on Iran
July 31 jumps to 25%14%
The July 31 contract also experienced a significant upward price movement following Trump's official statements that the naval blockade was back on the table.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Announces Reimposition of US Naval Blockade on Iran at NATO Summit
December 31 jumps to 37%9%
At the NATO summit in Turkey, President Trump declared that the ceasefire with Iran was over and officially announced that the U.S. was reimposing its naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Declares Ceasefire Over and Considers Reimposing Naval Blockade on Iran
December 31 jumps to 43%13%
At the NATO Summit in Turkey, President Donald Trump declared the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding effectively over and announced that the U.S. is considering reinstating its naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Jul 7 2026
US Ends Oil Export Sanctions Waiver Following Maritime Clashes with Iran
August 31 plunges to 28%21%
Following a series of drone attacks and exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. terminated the oil export waiver granted to Iran, threatening a return to the naval blockade.
Jul 7 2026
August 31 Blockade Probability Plummets on Sustained Peace Framework
August 31 plunges to 20%29%
The August 31 contract saw its price drop from 49% to 20% as the diplomatic framework mediated by Pakistan and Qatar continued to hold, reducing fears of a sudden return to hostilities.
Jul 2 2026
Iran Warns Against US Interference in Strait of Hormuz Management
December 31 dips to 28%3%
Iran's Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters warned of a swift response to any US interference in its efforts to manage the Strait of Hormuz, raising geopolitical tensions.
Jun 25 2026
US Central Command Deploys Second Marine Expeditionary Unit to Middle East
December 31 jumps to 38%5%
As peace talks paused for the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, CENTCOM announced that ships carrying a second Marine Expeditionary Unit were operating in the Middle East, signaling continued military readiness.
Jun 23 2026
Capito weighs in on Trump's Iran Memorandum of Understanding
August 31 drops to 38%11%
Senator Capito commented on the Trump administration's deal with Iran, noting that the U.S. would lift the naval blockade and end all sanctions as part of the agreement, which could have implications for maritime restrictions.
Jun 23 2026
Trump Announces Iran Agrees to Permanent Nuclear Inspections
December 31 jumps to 31%7%
President Donald Trump announced that Iran had agreed to permanent nuclear inspections, reinforcing the diplomatic path and reducing the likelihood of a renewed blockade.
Jun 22 2026
US Treasury Issues General License X Authorizing Iranian Oil Sales
December 31 plunges to 24%22%
Following the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding, the U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a broad 60-day authorization allowing Iranian oil exports, reinforcing the formal lifting of the maritime blockade.
Jun 22 2026
Iran and US Dispute Nuclear Inspection Discussions in Switzerland
December 31 plunges to 24%22%
Conflicting reports emerged regarding whether the nuclear issue was discussed during the Switzerland talks, creating brief uncertainty about the stability of the newly signed peace framework.
Jun 22 2026
Senate passes Iran War Powers Resolution limiting U.S. military actions
July 31 plunges to 21%24%
The Senate passed a War Powers Resolution that would bind the President to cease hostilities against Iran, signaling a major legislative effort to end the conflict and likely influencing market expectations about future U.S. military posture.
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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