Recent high-level US-China economic talks in New York produced concrete progress on carving out nonsensitive goods from tariff actions and establishing an AI dialogue channel, directly supporting trader expectations of a formal agreement by year-end. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the sessions with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng as very successful, building on the existing trade truce set to expire in November and ongoing consultations for reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side. The September 24 White House summit between President Trump and President Xi is positioned to extend and expand these arrangements, with both sides maintaining active mechanisms for further de-escalation. While late developments could still shift outcomes, sustained diplomatic momentum underpins the 91% implied probability for resolution before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于91% 概率
$261,605 交易量
$261,605 交易量
2026-12-31
91% 概率
$261,605 交易量
$261,605 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent high-level US-China economic talks in New York produced concrete progress on carving out nonsensitive goods from tariff actions and establishing an AI dialogue channel, directly supporting trader expectations of a formal agreement by year-end. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the sessions with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng as very successful, building on the existing trade truce set to expire in November and ongoing consultations for reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side. The September 24 White House summit between President Trump and President Xi is positioned to extend and expand these arrangements, with both sides maintaining active mechanisms for further de-escalation. While late developments could still shift outcomes, sustained diplomatic momentum underpins the 91% implied probability for resolution before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市场开放时间： May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
交易量
$261,605结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent high-level US-China economic talks in New York produced concrete progress on carving out nonsensitive goods from tariff actions and establishing an AI dialogue channel, directly supporting trader expectations of a formal agreement by year-end. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the sessions with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng as very successful, building on the existing trade truce set to expire in November and ongoing consultations for reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side. The September 24 White House summit between President Trump and President Xi is positioned to extend and expand these arrangements, with both sides maintaining active mechanisms for further de-escalation. While late developments could still shift outcomes, sustained diplomatic momentum underpins the 91% implied probability for resolution before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$261,605结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETRecent high-level US-China economic talks in New York produced concrete progress on carving out nonsensitive goods from tariff actions and establishing an AI dialogue channel, directly supporting trader expectations of a formal agreement by year-end. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the sessions with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng as very successful, building on the existing trade truce set to expire in November and ongoing consultations for reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side. The September 24 White House summit between President Trump and President Xi is positioned to extend and expand these arrangements, with both sides maintaining active mechanisms for further de-escalation. While late developments could still shift outcomes, sustained diplomatic momentum underpins the 91% implied probability for resolution before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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