Anthropic's recent Claude Opus releases, including the July launch of Opus 5 and strong showings from Opus 4.8 variants, have driven the market's 97.4% consensus by topping key benchmarks such as SWE-bench for coding, LMArena human preferences, and prose quality evaluations. Traders see these large language models outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5 series in accuracy and natural output while edging Google Gemini on frontier capabilities, reflecting consistent developer and enterprise adoption signals. With end-of-August resolution imminent, a surprise multimodal or agentic breakthrough from competitors could shift odds, though current trajectories and release cadence make such reversals unlikely absent major undisclosed progress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 97.2%
OpenAI 1.8%
谷歌 <1%
Meta <1%
$1,816,682 交易量
$1,816,682 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
97%
OpenAI
2%
谷歌
1%
Meta
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
百度
<1%
小米
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
英伟达
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美团
<1%
腾讯
<1%
StepFun
<1%
微软
<1%
Anthropic 97.2%
OpenAI 1.8%
谷歌 <1%
Meta <1%
$1,816,682 交易量
$1,816,682 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
$371,909 交易量
97%
OpenAI
$154,689 交易量
2%
谷歌
$140,296 交易量
1%
Meta
$149,725 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$139,475 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$150,365 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$154,631 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$225,827 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$108,007 交易量
<1%
百度
$15,032 交易量
<1%
小米
$11,009 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$9,778 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$103,190 交易量
<1%
英伟达
$11,465 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$14,084 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$28,168 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$4,351 交易量
<1%
美团
$3,803 交易量
<1%
腾讯
$4,363 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$4,993 交易量
<1%
微软
$11,524 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude Opus releases, including the July launch of Opus 5 and strong showings from Opus 4.8 variants, have driven the market's 97.4% consensus by topping key benchmarks such as SWE-bench for coding, LMArena human preferences, and prose quality evaluations. Traders see these large language models outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5 series in accuracy and natural output while edging Google Gemini on frontier capabilities, reflecting consistent developer and enterprise adoption signals. With end-of-August resolution imminent, a surprise multimodal or agentic breakthrough from competitors could shift odds, though current trajectories and release cadence make such reversals unlikely absent major undisclosed progress.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
交易量
$1,816,682结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude Opus releases, including the July launch of Opus 5 and strong showings from Opus 4.8 variants, have driven the market's 97.4% consensus by topping key benchmarks such as SWE-bench for coding, LMArena human preferences, and prose quality evaluations. Traders see these large language models outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5 series in accuracy and natural output while edging Google Gemini on frontier capabilities, reflecting consistent developer and enterprise adoption signals. With end-of-August resolution imminent, a surprise multimodal or agentic breakthrough from competitors could shift odds, though current trajectories and release cadence make such reversals unlikely absent major undisclosed progress.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$1,816,682结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETAnthropic's recent Claude Opus releases, including the July launch of Opus 5 and strong showings from Opus 4.8 variants, have driven the market's 97.4% consensus by topping key benchmarks such as SWE-bench for coding, LMArena human preferences, and prose quality evaluations. Traders see these large language models outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5 series in accuracy and natural output while edging Google Gemini on frontier capabilities, reflecting consistent developer and enterprise adoption signals. With end-of-August resolution imminent, a surprise multimodal or agentic breakthrough from competitors could shift odds, though current trajectories and release cadence make such reversals unlikely absent major undisclosed progress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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