Anthropic holds a commanding 67% implied probability in this market due to its recent Claude model iterations demonstrating superior performance on style-controlled generation benchmarks, outpacing competitors in consistency and creative adherence under constrained prompts. Google follows at 23.5% on the strength of Gemini updates and its integration across search and cloud platforms, though traders view these as incremental rather than breakthrough gains. OpenAI and xAI trail at 5% and 2.5% respectively amid ongoing development cycles, with market consensus reflecting Anthropic’s edge in targeted capability demonstrations through mid-May 2026. Upcoming leaderboards and any surprise releases before June 30 could still shift positioning, as AI model rankings remain sensitive to new evaluation criteria and scaling improvements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 67%
谷歌 23%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.6%
$1,457,416 交易量
$1,457,416 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
67%
谷歌
23%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
阿里巴巴
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
微软
1%
Moonshot
1%
美团
<1%
Mistral
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
百度
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
Anthropic 67%
谷歌 23%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.6%
$1,457,416 交易量
$1,457,416 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$30,607 交易量
67%
谷歌
$18,768 交易量
23%
OpenAI
$49,364 交易量
5%
xAI
$14,994 交易量
3%
DeepSeek
$201,408 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$136,551 交易量
1%
Meta
$8,184 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$412,936 交易量
1%
微软
$11,912 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$203,394 交易量
1%
美团
$270,733 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$59,379 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$12,849 交易量
<1%
百度
$8,651 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$17,686 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 67% implied probability in this market due to its recent Claude model iterations demonstrating superior performance on style-controlled generation benchmarks, outpacing competitors in consistency and creative adherence under constrained prompts. Google follows at 23.5% on the strength of Gemini updates and its integration across search and cloud platforms, though traders view these as incremental rather than breakthrough gains. OpenAI and xAI trail at 5% and 2.5% respectively amid ongoing development cycles, with market consensus reflecting Anthropic’s edge in targeted capability demonstrations through mid-May 2026. Upcoming leaderboards and any surprise releases before June 30 could still shift positioning, as AI model rankings remain sensitive to new evaluation criteria and scaling improvements.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$1,457,416结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 67% implied probability in this market due to its recent Claude model iterations demonstrating superior performance on style-controlled generation benchmarks, outpacing competitors in consistency and creative adherence under constrained prompts. Google follows at 23.5% on the strength of Gemini updates and its integration across search and cloud platforms, though traders view these as incremental rather than breakthrough gains. OpenAI and xAI trail at 5% and 2.5% respectively amid ongoing development cycles, with market consensus reflecting Anthropic’s edge in targeted capability demonstrations through mid-May 2026. Upcoming leaderboards and any surprise releases before June 30 could still shift positioning, as AI model rankings remain sensitive to new evaluation criteria and scaling improvements.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$1,457,416结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic holds a commanding 67% implied probability in this market due to its recent Claude model iterations demonstrating superior performance on style-controlled generation benchmarks, outpacing competitors in consistency and creative adherence under constrained prompts. Google follows at 23.5% on the strength of Gemini updates and its integration across search and cloud platforms, though traders view these as incremental rather than breakthrough gains. OpenAI and xAI trail at 5% and 2.5% respectively amid ongoing development cycles, with market consensus reflecting Anthropic’s edge in targeted capability demonstrations through mid-May 2026. Upcoming leaderboards and any surprise releases before June 30 could still shift positioning, as AI model rankings remain sensitive to new evaluation criteria and scaling improvements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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