Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including departures of officials such as the attorney general, homeland security secretary, labor secretary, and director of national intelligence, has sustained expectations of further changes through 2026. With leading outcomes clustered between 35% and 46%, traders appear to view several appointees as comparably exposed due to ongoing performance evaluations, agency frictions, and policy implementation challenges. This narrow spread reflects the absence of a single dominant signal distinguishing one contender, while developments such as confirmation hearings, internal administration reviews, public disagreements on priorities, or sudden resignations could widen gaps before the end of the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pete Hegseth 35%
Jamieson Greer 33.9%
Susie Wiles 26.6%
Marco Rubio 20.7%
最新
最新
2026-12-31
Pete Hegseth
35%
Jamieson Greer
34%
Susie Wiles
27%
Marco Rubio
21%
Scott Turner
15%
Howard Lutnick
11%
None before 2027
10%
Scott Bessent
8%
Sean Duffy
7%
Doug Collins
5%
John Ratcliffe
11%
Kelly Loeffler
4%
J.D. Vance
4%
Chris Wright
3%
Lee Zeldin
3%
Linda McMahon
7%
Doug Burgum
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Brooke Rollins
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
44%
Mike Waltz
33%
Pete Hegseth 35%
Jamieson Greer 33.9%
Susie Wiles 26.6%
Marco Rubio 20.7%
最新
最新
2026-12-31
Pete Hegseth
$118 交易量
35%
Jamieson Greer
$155 交易量
34%
Susie Wiles
$302 交易量
27%
Marco Rubio
$175 交易量
21%
Scott Turner
$155 交易量
15%
Howard Lutnick
$385 交易量
11%
None before 2027
$301 交易量
10%
Scott Bessent
$561 交易量
8%
Sean Duffy
$257 交易量
7%
Doug Collins
$76 交易量
5%
John Ratcliffe
$200 交易量
11%
Kelly Loeffler
$383 交易量
4%
J.D. Vance
$263 交易量
4%
Chris Wright
$226 交易量
3%
Lee Zeldin
$233 交易量
3%
Linda McMahon
$419 交易量
7%
Doug Burgum
$171 交易量
1%
Russell T. Vought
$225 交易量
1%
Brooke Rollins
$305 交易量
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$256 交易量
44%
Mike Waltz
$201 交易量
33%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including departures of officials such as the attorney general, homeland security secretary, labor secretary, and director of national intelligence, has sustained expectations of further changes through 2026. With leading outcomes clustered between 35% and 46%, traders appear to view several appointees as comparably exposed due to ongoing performance evaluations, agency frictions, and policy implementation challenges. This narrow spread reflects the absence of a single dominant signal distinguishing one contender, while developments such as confirmation hearings, internal administration reviews, public disagreements on priorities, or sudden resignations could widen gaps before the end of the year.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$5,365结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including departures of officials such as the attorney general, homeland security secretary, labor secretary, and director of national intelligence, has sustained expectations of further changes through 2026. With leading outcomes clustered between 35% and 46%, traders appear to view several appointees as comparably exposed due to ongoing performance evaluations, agency frictions, and policy implementation challenges. This narrow spread reflects the absence of a single dominant signal distinguishing one contender, while developments such as confirmation hearings, internal administration reviews, public disagreements on priorities, or sudden resignations could widen gaps before the end of the year.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
交易量
$5,365结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including departures of officials such as the attorney general, homeland security secretary, labor secretary, and director of national intelligence, has sustained expectations of further changes through 2026. With leading outcomes clustered between 35% and 46%, traders appear to view several appointees as comparably exposed due to ongoing performance evaluations, agency frictions, and policy implementation challenges. This narrow spread reflects the absence of a single dominant signal distinguishing one contender, while developments such as confirmation hearings, internal administration reviews, public disagreements on priorities, or sudden resignations could widen gaps before the end of the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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