Several Republican-held Senate seats feature closely matched candidates and polling that has kept margins narrow in recent surveys, driving trader consensus toward Texas and Iowa as the likeliest sites of the smallest victory margin on November 3, 2026. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a race where multiple August polls showed gaps of 1–4 points. Iowa’s open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek with similar tightness. Ohio’s special election, Alaska’s matchup of Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola, and Maine’s contest involving Susan Collins add further uncertainty through strong challengers and shifting state fundamentals. Recent fundraising edges and primary outcomes have sustained this cluster of competitive dynamics without yet producing clear separation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Texas 25%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 13.9%
$28,210 交易量
$28,210 交易量
2026-11-03
Texas
25%
Iowa
22%
Maine
15%
Ohio (Special)
14%
Alaska
12%
Michigan
6%
Nebraska
5%
New Mexico
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Virginia
2%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
1%
Georgia
1%
Colorado
1%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
<1%
Texas 25%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 13.9%
$28,210 交易量
$28,210 交易量
2026-11-03
Texas
$1,058 交易量
25%
Iowa
$2,677 交易量
22%
Maine
$1,285 交易量
15%
Ohio (Special)
$5,040 交易量
14%
Alaska
$5,272 交易量
12%
Michigan
$2,490 交易量
6%
Nebraska
$275 交易量
5%
New Mexico
$160 交易量
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 交易量
3%
Virginia
$5,073 交易量
2%
North Carolina
$621 交易量
2%
New Hampshire
$485 交易量
1%
Georgia
$752 交易量
1%
Colorado
$662 交易量
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 交易量
1%
Montana
$616 交易量
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several Republican-held Senate seats feature closely matched candidates and polling that has kept margins narrow in recent surveys, driving trader consensus toward Texas and Iowa as the likeliest sites of the smallest victory margin on November 3, 2026. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a race where multiple August polls showed gaps of 1–4 points. Iowa’s open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek with similar tightness. Ohio’s special election, Alaska’s matchup of Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola, and Maine’s contest involving Susan Collins add further uncertainty through strong challengers and shifting state fundamentals. Recent fundraising edges and primary outcomes have sustained this cluster of competitive dynamics without yet producing clear separation.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
交易量
$28,210结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several Republican-held Senate seats feature closely matched candidates and polling that has kept margins narrow in recent surveys, driving trader consensus toward Texas and Iowa as the likeliest sites of the smallest victory margin on November 3, 2026. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a race where multiple August polls showed gaps of 1–4 points. Iowa’s open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek with similar tightness. Ohio’s special election, Alaska’s matchup of Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola, and Maine’s contest involving Susan Collins add further uncertainty through strong challengers and shifting state fundamentals. Recent fundraising edges and primary outcomes have sustained this cluster of competitive dynamics without yet producing clear separation.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$28,210结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several Republican-held Senate seats feature closely matched candidates and polling that has kept margins narrow in recent surveys, driving trader consensus toward Texas and Iowa as the likeliest sites of the smallest victory margin on November 3, 2026. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a race where multiple August polls showed gaps of 1–4 points. Iowa’s open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek with similar tightness. Ohio’s special election, Alaska’s matchup of Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola, and Maine’s contest involving Susan Collins add further uncertainty through strong challengers and shifting state fundamentals. Recent fundraising edges and primary outcomes have sustained this cluster of competitive dynamics without yet producing clear separation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题