Recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer since March, has elevated trader expectations for additional changes ahead of the 2026 midterms. Tulsi Gabbard leads at 39.5% amid April reports of White House discussions about her replacement as director of national intelligence, tied to clashes over Iran-related testimony and deputy oversight that diverged from administration priorities. Howard Lutnick follows at 27.6% due to ongoing scrutiny of his Commerce Department role and family business associations. The 25% probability assigned to no further departures before 2027 reflects official statements of continuity and the absence of confirmed plans, while lower odds for figures like Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth align with their alignment on core policy fronts and lack of recent friction signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Tulsi Gabbard 39%
None before 2027 25%
Howard Lutnick 15.0%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 交易量
$11,675 交易量
2026-12-31
Tulsi Gabbard
39%
None before 2027
25%
Howard Lutnick
28%
Scott Bessent
14%
Susie Wiles
23%
Marco Rubio
18%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Chris Wright
22%
Brooke Rollins
3%
John Ratcliffe
3%
J.D. Vance
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Scott Turner
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Tulsi Gabbard 39%
None before 2027 25%
Howard Lutnick 15.0%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 交易量
$11,675 交易量
2026-12-31
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,210 交易量
39%
None before 2027
$223 交易量
25%
Howard Lutnick
$2,009 交易量
28%
Scott Bessent
$233 交易量
14%
Susie Wiles
$326 交易量
23%
Marco Rubio
$294 交易量
18%
Pete Hegseth
$628 交易量
4%
Chris Wright
$390 交易量
22%
Brooke Rollins
$218 交易量
3%
John Ratcliffe
$259 交易量
3%
J.D. Vance
$415 交易量
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$333 交易量
2%
Russell T. Vought
$268 交易量
2%
Scott Turner
$352 交易量
1%
Mike Waltz
$270 交易量
1%
Lee Zeldin
$294 交易量
1%
Doug Burgum
$281 交易量
1%
Doug Collins
$318 交易量
1%
Linda McMahon
$321 交易量
1%
Sean Duffy
$325 交易量
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$475 交易量
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$233 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer since March, has elevated trader expectations for additional changes ahead of the 2026 midterms. Tulsi Gabbard leads at 39.5% amid April reports of White House discussions about her replacement as director of national intelligence, tied to clashes over Iran-related testimony and deputy oversight that diverged from administration priorities. Howard Lutnick follows at 27.6% due to ongoing scrutiny of his Commerce Department role and family business associations. The 25% probability assigned to no further departures before 2027 reflects official statements of continuity and the absence of confirmed plans, while lower odds for figures like Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth align with their alignment on core policy fronts and lack of recent friction signals.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
交易量
$11,675结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer since March, has elevated trader expectations for additional changes ahead of the 2026 midterms. Tulsi Gabbard leads at 39.5% amid April reports of White House discussions about her replacement as director of national intelligence, tied to clashes over Iran-related testimony and deputy oversight that diverged from administration priorities. Howard Lutnick follows at 27.6% due to ongoing scrutiny of his Commerce Department role and family business associations. The 25% probability assigned to no further departures before 2027 reflects official statements of continuity and the absence of confirmed plans, while lower odds for figures like Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth align with their alignment on core policy fronts and lack of recent friction signals.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
交易量
$11,675结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer since March, has elevated trader expectations for additional changes ahead of the 2026 midterms. Tulsi Gabbard leads at 39.5% amid April reports of White House discussions about her replacement as director of national intelligence, tied to clashes over Iran-related testimony and deputy oversight that diverged from administration priorities. Howard Lutnick follows at 27.6% due to ongoing scrutiny of his Commerce Department role and family business associations. The 25% probability assigned to no further departures before 2027 reflects official statements of continuity and the absence of confirmed plans, while lower odds for figures like Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth align with their alignment on core policy fronts and lack of recent friction signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题