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icon for 谁将在6月30日之前进入伊朗?

谁将在6月30日之前进入伊朗?

icon for 谁将在6月30日之前进入伊朗?

谁将在6月30日之前进入伊朗?

$16,176,042 交易量

2026-06-30
Polymarket

$16,176,042 交易量

Polymarket

任何美国众议院议员

$121,081 交易量

1%

任何美国参议员

$67,407 交易量

1%

马尔科·鲁比奥

$80,241 交易量

<1%

唐纳德·特朗普

$125,783 交易量

<1%

皮特·海格塞斯

$224,886 交易量

<1%

JD·万斯

$2,634,984 交易量

<1%

贾里德·库什纳

$870,706 交易量

<1%

本雅明·内塔尼亚胡

$12,050,955 交易量

<1%

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran tensions and airstrikes since late February 2026 have centered on military targets, with recent American strikes in early June hitting surveillance, communications, and air-defense sites. Negotiations produced a draft memorandum announced June 14, with electronic signing reported and a formal agreement expected around June 19 in Switzerland to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and address nuclear issues. No ground operations or official visits by US congressional members, Trump administration figures, or other listed individuals have occurred or been scheduled inside Iran. The market reflects trader consensus on the low probability of any physical entry by the deadline amid active diplomacy and the absence of invasion plans.

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$16,176,042
结束日期
2026-06-30
市场开放时间
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran tensions and airstrikes since late February 2026 have centered on military targets, with recent American strikes in early June hitting surveillance, communications, and air-defense sites. Negotiations produced a draft memorandum announced June 14, with electronic signing reported and a formal agreement expected around June 19 in Switzerland to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and address nuclear issues. No ground operations or official visits by US congressional members, Trump administration figures, or other listed individuals have occurred or been scheduled inside Iran. The market reflects trader consensus on the low probability of any physical entry by the deadline amid active diplomacy and the absence of invasion plans.

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$16,176,042
结束日期
2026-06-30
市场开放时间
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"谁将在6月30日之前进入伊朗?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 8 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"任何美国众议院议员",概率为 1%,其次是"任何美国参议员",概率为 1%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 1¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 1%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"谁将在6月30日之前进入伊朗?"已产生 $16.2 million 的总交易量(自Mar 1, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"谁将在6月30日之前进入伊朗?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 8 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"谁将在6月30日之前进入伊朗?"的当前领先者是"任何美国众议院议员",仅有 1%,"任何美国参议员"紧随其后为 1%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势,交易者认为这高度不确定,可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新,请将本页加入书签。

"谁将在6月30日之前进入伊朗?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。