Apple's established annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced in September following prior-year launches, underpins the near-certain market consensus on an iPhone 18 debut in 2026. Supply chain reports, component certifications, and developer ecosystem activity align with historical patterns, while no major disruptions in manufacturing or silicon production have surfaced to date. Traders view this as low-risk given the company's track record of meeting yearly timelines. Still, realistic tail risks remain, including component shortages, last-minute hardware delays with advanced features, or unforeseen regulatory hurdles around AI integration that could shift the exact window without derailing the year entirely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
98% 概率
$173,244 交易量
$173,244 交易量
2026-12-30
是
98% 概率
$173,244 交易量
$173,244 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced in September following prior-year launches, underpins the near-certain market consensus on an iPhone 18 debut in 2026. Supply chain reports, component certifications, and developer ecosystem activity align with historical patterns, while no major disruptions in manufacturing or silicon production have surfaced to date. Traders view this as low-risk given the company's track record of meeting yearly timelines. Still, realistic tail risks remain, including component shortages, last-minute hardware delays with advanced features, or unforeseen regulatory hurdles around AI integration that could shift the exact window without derailing the year entirely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$173,244结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced in September following prior-year launches, underpins the near-certain market consensus on an iPhone 18 debut in 2026. Supply chain reports, component certifications, and developer ecosystem activity align with historical patterns, while no major disruptions in manufacturing or silicon production have surfaced to date. Traders view this as low-risk given the company's track record of meeting yearly timelines. Still, realistic tail risks remain, including component shortages, last-minute hardware delays with advanced features, or unforeseen regulatory hurdles around AI integration that could shift the exact window without derailing the year entirely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$173,244结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced in September following prior-year launches, underpins the near-certain market consensus on an iPhone 18 debut in 2026. Supply chain reports, component certifications, and developer ecosystem activity align with historical patterns, while no major disruptions in manufacturing or silicon production have surfaced to date. Traders view this as low-risk given the company's track record of meeting yearly timelines. Still, realistic tail risks remain, including component shortages, last-minute hardware delays with advanced features, or unforeseen regulatory hurdles around AI integration that could shift the exact window without derailing the year entirely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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