Apple's established pattern of unveiling a new flagship iPhone each September drives the strong trader consensus around a 2026 release for the iPhone 18. The company has followed this annual cycle since 2007, with development and supply chain timelines aligned to that cadence, including recent progress on advanced silicon and display components reported in industry analyses. This history creates high implied probability for the standard launch window, though realistic disruptions such as major semiconductor shortages or regulatory hurdles in key markets could shift the schedule, as occasionally observed in prior hardware cycles. Traders will likely monitor Apple's September 2025 event and subsequent supply updates for any early signals of deviation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$104,172 交易量
$104,172 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$104,172 交易量
$104,172 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established pattern of unveiling a new flagship iPhone each September drives the strong trader consensus around a 2026 release for the iPhone 18. The company has followed this annual cycle since 2007, with development and supply chain timelines aligned to that cadence, including recent progress on advanced silicon and display components reported in industry analyses. This history creates high implied probability for the standard launch window, though realistic disruptions such as major semiconductor shortages or regulatory hurdles in key markets could shift the schedule, as occasionally observed in prior hardware cycles. Traders will likely monitor Apple's September 2025 event and subsequent supply updates for any early signals of deviation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$104,172结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established pattern of unveiling a new flagship iPhone each September drives the strong trader consensus around a 2026 release for the iPhone 18. The company has followed this annual cycle since 2007, with development and supply chain timelines aligned to that cadence, including recent progress on advanced silicon and display components reported in industry analyses. This history creates high implied probability for the standard launch window, though realistic disruptions such as major semiconductor shortages or regulatory hurdles in key markets could shift the schedule, as occasionally observed in prior hardware cycles. Traders will likely monitor Apple's September 2025 event and subsequent supply updates for any early signals of deviation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$104,172结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established pattern of unveiling a new flagship iPhone each September drives the strong trader consensus around a 2026 release for the iPhone 18. The company has followed this annual cycle since 2007, with development and supply chain timelines aligned to that cadence, including recent progress on advanced silicon and display components reported in industry analyses. This history creates high implied probability for the standard launch window, though realistic disruptions such as major semiconductor shortages or regulatory hurdles in key markets could shift the schedule, as occasionally observed in prior hardware cycles. Traders will likely monitor Apple's September 2025 event and subsequent supply updates for any early signals of deviation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题