Traders assign overwhelming probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30 because no large-scale amphibious mobilization, missile deployments, or official statements from Beijing have emerged in recent weeks to indicate imminent action. Cross-strait tensions persist through routine military exercises and gray-zone pressure, yet economic interdependence and multilateral deterrence involving the United States and regional partners continue to raise the threshold for direct conflict. Analysts note that any short-term operation would require weeks of visible logistical buildup not currently observed. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a sudden maritime incident triggering rapid escalation or an abrupt change in Chinese leadership signaling, though both fall outside patterns documented through mid-May.