Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious preparations or sudden escalation in the Strait over recent months. Chinese military activity around Taiwan has remained at subdued levels compared with prior years, with August 2026 aerial sorties well below 2025 totals amid ongoing leadership purges that have disrupted People’s Liberation Army command structures. Beijing has emphasized lower-risk coercive tools such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and routine combat readiness exercises rather than invasion forces. Taiwan continues incremental defense enhancements, including supplementary budgets for missiles and unmanned systems. With only days remaining before resolution, any shift would require an abrupt, high-risk decision absent current indicators of mobilization or diplomatic breakdown.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
<1% 概率
$2,137,180 交易量
$2,137,180 交易量
2026-09-30
是
<1% 概率
$2,137,180 交易量
$2,137,180 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious preparations or sudden escalation in the Strait over recent months. Chinese military activity around Taiwan has remained at subdued levels compared with prior years, with August 2026 aerial sorties well below 2025 totals amid ongoing leadership purges that have disrupted People’s Liberation Army command structures. Beijing has emphasized lower-risk coercive tools such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and routine combat readiness exercises rather than invasion forces. Taiwan continues incremental defense enhancements, including supplementary budgets for missiles and unmanned systems. With only days remaining before resolution, any shift would require an abrupt, high-risk decision absent current indicators of mobilization or diplomatic breakdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
交易量
$2,137,180结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious preparations or sudden escalation in the Strait over recent months. Chinese military activity around Taiwan has remained at subdued levels compared with prior years, with August 2026 aerial sorties well below 2025 totals amid ongoing leadership purges that have disrupted People’s Liberation Army command structures. Beijing has emphasized lower-risk coercive tools such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and routine combat readiness exercises rather than invasion forces. Taiwan continues incremental defense enhancements, including supplementary budgets for missiles and unmanned systems. With only days remaining before resolution, any shift would require an abrupt, high-risk decision absent current indicators of mobilization or diplomatic breakdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$2,137,180结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETTraders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious preparations or sudden escalation in the Strait over recent months. Chinese military activity around Taiwan has remained at subdued levels compared with prior years, with August 2026 aerial sorties well below 2025 totals amid ongoing leadership purges that have disrupted People’s Liberation Army command structures. Beijing has emphasized lower-risk coercive tools such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and routine combat readiness exercises rather than invasion forces. Taiwan continues incremental defense enhancements, including supplementary budgets for missiles and unmanned systems. With only days remaining before resolution, any shift would require an abrupt, high-risk decision absent current indicators of mobilization or diplomatic breakdown.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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