**France's minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu faces entrenched parliamentary opposition that is elevating the market-implied probability of failing to enact a full 2027 budget by year-end.** With no stable majority in the National Assembly, the administration must navigate deep spending cuts—targeting around €54 billion to hold the deficit near 5% of GDP after the 2026 shortfall widened to an expected 5.4% amid 0.5% growth—while parties position ahead of the April-May 2027 presidential election. Historical reliance on Article 49.3 decrees and special rollover laws, combined with warnings of budget paralysis from delayed investment and defense outlays, underpins trader consensus that a loi spéciale extending 2026 parameters is the more probable outcome. The draft bill's September 30 presentation and autumn votes will test whether compromise emerges or deadlock persists.