Recent U.S.-Iran framework agreement developments, including the June 15 announcement and expected June 19 memorandum signing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, represent the primary catalyst easing risk premiums and supporting modest traffic resumption. Commercial transits remain suppressed at 5–10% of pre-February 2026 levels, with fewer than 10 vessels daily versus over 100 previously, amid ongoing mine-clearance requirements, elevated war-risk insurance surcharges, and demands for verified safety assurances. Isolated LNG movements and a handful of early crossings have occurred, but crude and product tanker flows stay minimal. Brent crude and related energy benchmarks have declined sharply in response, with Kpler estimating potential volume recovery to roughly 40 transits daily—near 50% of prewar norms—within 30 days if no setbacks emerge. Traders are monitoring near-term AIS data for signs of sustained pickup that could influence global supply-chain costs and refinery margins by the June 30 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$3,244,765 交易量
2026-06-30
40+
93%
60+
22%
80+
3%
$3,244,765 交易量
40+
$1,062,418 交易量
93%
60+
$848,882 交易量
22%
80+
$780,914 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent U.S.-Iran framework agreement developments, including the June 15 announcement and expected June 19 memorandum signing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, represent the primary catalyst easing risk premiums and supporting modest traffic resumption. Commercial transits remain suppressed at 5–10% of pre-February 2026 levels, with fewer than 10 vessels daily versus over 100 previously, amid ongoing mine-clearance requirements, elevated war-risk insurance surcharges, and demands for verified safety assurances. Isolated LNG movements and a handful of early crossings have occurred, but crude and product tanker flows stay minimal. Brent crude and related energy benchmarks have declined sharply in response, with Kpler estimating potential volume recovery to roughly 40 transits daily—near 50% of prewar norms—within 30 days if no setbacks emerge. Traders are monitoring near-term AIS data for signs of sustained pickup that could influence global supply-chain costs and refinery margins by the June 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Jun 1, 2026, 1:58 PM ET
交易量
$3,244,765结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Jun 1, 2026, 1:58 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent U.S.-Iran framework agreement developments, including the June 15 announcement and expected June 19 memorandum signing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, represent the primary catalyst easing risk premiums and supporting modest traffic resumption. Commercial transits remain suppressed at 5–10% of pre-February 2026 levels, with fewer than 10 vessels daily versus over 100 previously, amid ongoing mine-clearance requirements, elevated war-risk insurance surcharges, and demands for verified safety assurances. Isolated LNG movements and a handful of early crossings have occurred, but crude and product tanker flows stay minimal. Brent crude and related energy benchmarks have declined sharply in response, with Kpler estimating potential volume recovery to roughly 40 transits daily—near 50% of prewar norms—within 30 days if no setbacks emerge. Traders are monitoring near-term AIS data for signs of sustained pickup that could influence global supply-chain costs and refinery margins by the June 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$3,244,765结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Jun 1, 2026, 1:58 PM ETRecent U.S.-Iran framework agreement developments, including the June 15 announcement and expected June 19 memorandum signing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, represent the primary catalyst easing risk premiums and supporting modest traffic resumption. Commercial transits remain suppressed at 5–10% of pre-February 2026 levels, with fewer than 10 vessels daily versus over 100 previously, amid ongoing mine-clearance requirements, elevated war-risk insurance surcharges, and demands for verified safety assurances. Isolated LNG movements and a handful of early crossings have occurred, but crude and product tanker flows stay minimal. Brent crude and related energy benchmarks have declined sharply in response, with Kpler estimating potential volume recovery to roughly 40 transits daily—near 50% of prewar norms—within 30 days if no setbacks emerge. Traders are monitoring near-term AIS data for signs of sustained pickup that could influence global supply-chain costs and refinery margins by the June 30 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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