Traders assign a 98.3% probability to no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because continuous surveillance by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and similar programs has identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of releasing that energy. Historical data show such events occur roughly once every few centuries, with no confirmed megaton-scale atmospheric or surface impacts since detailed records began. Ongoing sky surveys using optical telescopes and radar continue to catalog near-Earth objects without flagging any 2026 risks. While the consensus reflects robust detection capabilities, a previously undetected long-period comet or a sudden orbital perturbation from an undiscovered body could theoretically alter the outcome, though current monitoring makes either scenario highly improbable before year-end.