NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of releasing 1 megaton of airburst energy in 2026, driving the 96.9 percent market-implied probability for “No.” Objects in the 25–40 meter range that could produce such an event occur on average only once every several decades and have been largely catalogued by surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey. With half the year elapsed and zero qualifying detections recorded through mid-May, trader consensus reflects both the low historical base rate and the completeness of current planetary defense monitoring. The sole realistic pathway to a shift remains the sudden identification of a previously undetected fast-moving bolide under 30 meters, though advancing infrared surveys continue to narrow that residual uncertainty window.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$106,060 Vol.
$106,060 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$106,060 Vol.
$106,060 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of releasing 1 megaton of airburst energy in 2026, driving the 96.9 percent market-implied probability for “No.” Objects in the 25–40 meter range that could produce such an event occur on average only once every several decades and have been largely catalogued by surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey. With half the year elapsed and zero qualifying detections recorded through mid-May, trader consensus reflects both the low historical base rate and the completeness of current planetary defense monitoring. The sole realistic pathway to a shift remains the sudden identification of a previously undetected fast-moving bolide under 30 meters, though advancing infrared surveys continue to narrow that residual uncertainty window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$106,060শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of releasing 1 megaton of airburst energy in 2026, driving the 96.9 percent market-implied probability for “No.” Objects in the 25–40 meter range that could produce such an event occur on average only once every several decades and have been largely catalogued by surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey. With half the year elapsed and zero qualifying detections recorded through mid-May, trader consensus reflects both the low historical base rate and the completeness of current planetary defense monitoring. The sole realistic pathway to a shift remains the sudden identification of a previously undetected fast-moving bolide under 30 meters, though advancing infrared surveys continue to narrow that residual uncertainty window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ভলিউম
$106,060শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of releasing 1 megaton of airburst energy in 2026, driving the 96.9 percent market-implied probability for “No.” Objects in the 25–40 meter range that could produce such an event occur on average only once every several decades and have been largely catalogued by surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey. With half the year elapsed and zero qualifying detections recorded through mid-May, trader consensus reflects both the low historical base rate and the completeness of current planetary defense monitoring. The sole realistic pathway to a shift remains the sudden identification of a previously undetected fast-moving bolide under 30 meters, though advancing infrared surveys continue to narrow that residual uncertainty window.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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