Ongoing tensions stemming from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict that began in late February continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint. Iranian forces have maintained restrictions including vessel approval requirements, mine threats, and selective passage rules, keeping daily traffic at single-digit to low-teens levels in recent weeks compared to the pre-conflict average of roughly 100-140 vessels. U.S. initiatives such as Project Freedom, aimed at escorting stranded ships, have been paused amid fragile cease-fire dynamics, while recent Iranian statements on safe passage coordination have produced minimal increases in observed movements. These factors underpin trader consensus around persistently low averages by the end of May, though any verified diplomatic breakthrough or full lifting of restrictions could alter volumes within the resolution window.