Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest between under 20 ships (41.5% implied probability) and 20-39 ships (39.5%) transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the May 11-17 week, reflecting three consecutive weeks of severely depressed volumes amid the ongoing Iran conflict that has curtailed commercial traffic to 5-10% of pre-war norms of roughly 100 vessels daily. Recent Windward Intelligence data shows modest daily upticks to 17 crossings on May 10 and 18 on May 11—still far below baselines—but uncertainty from vessels disabling AIS transponders for security risks introduces potential undercounting, positioning these bins as competitive while consigning 40+ outcomes to low-single digits. Key swing factors include real-time MarineTraffic updates through May 17 and any escalation incidents, with over 150 vessels reportedly stranded in the Persian Gulf amplifying rerouting dynamics.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
<20 45%
20-39 37%
40-59 15%
60-79 3.2%
$23,811 Vol.
$23,811 Vol.
May 17, 2026
<20
45%
20-39
37%
40-59
15%
60-79
3%
80+
1%
<20 45%
20-39 37%
40-59 15%
60-79 3.2%
$23,811 Vol.
$23,811 Vol.
May 17, 2026
<20
$9,196 Vol.
45%
20-39
$4,311 Vol.
37%
40-59
$3,873 Vol.
15%
60-79
$3,435 Vol.
3%
80+
$2,995 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest between under 20 ships (41.5% implied probability) and 20-39 ships (39.5%) transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the May 11-17 week, reflecting three consecutive weeks of severely depressed volumes amid the ongoing Iran conflict that has curtailed commercial traffic to 5-10% of pre-war norms of roughly 100 vessels daily. Recent Windward Intelligence data shows modest daily upticks to 17 crossings on May 10 and 18 on May 11—still far below baselines—but uncertainty from vessels disabling AIS transponders for security risks introduces potential undercounting, positioning these bins as competitive while consigning 40+ outcomes to low-single digits. Key swing factors include real-time MarineTraffic updates through May 17 and any escalation incidents, with over 150 vessels reportedly stranded in the Persian Gulf amplifying rerouting dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
ভলিউম
$23,811শেষ তারিখ
May 17, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest between under 20 ships (41.5% implied probability) and 20-39 ships (39.5%) transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the May 11-17 week, reflecting three consecutive weeks of severely depressed volumes amid the ongoing Iran conflict that has curtailed commercial traffic to 5-10% of pre-war norms of roughly 100 vessels daily. Recent Windward Intelligence data shows modest daily upticks to 17 crossings on May 10 and 18 on May 11—still far below baselines—but uncertainty from vessels disabling AIS transponders for security risks introduces potential undercounting, positioning these bins as competitive while consigning 40+ outcomes to low-single digits. Key swing factors include real-time MarineTraffic updates through May 17 and any escalation incidents, with over 150 vessels reportedly stranded in the Persian Gulf amplifying rerouting dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ভলিউম
$23,811শেষ তারিখ
May 17, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest between under 20 ships (41.5% implied probability) and 20-39 ships (39.5%) transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the May 11-17 week, reflecting three consecutive weeks of severely depressed volumes amid the ongoing Iran conflict that has curtailed commercial traffic to 5-10% of pre-war norms of roughly 100 vessels daily. Recent Windward Intelligence data shows modest daily upticks to 17 crossings on May 10 and 18 on May 11—still far below baselines—but uncertainty from vessels disabling AIS transponders for security risks introduces potential undercounting, positioning these bins as competitive while consigning 40+ outcomes to low-single digits. Key swing factors include real-time MarineTraffic updates through May 17 and any escalation incidents, with over 150 vessels reportedly stranded in the Persian Gulf amplifying rerouting dynamics.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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