Recent Houthi threats of a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked shipping and renewed attacks in the southern Red Sea have driven persistent rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, keeping daily Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25–34 vessels. July data showed averages around 31 per day before stabilizing near 25–27 in early August per IMF and Clarksons tracking, well below pre-2023 levels amid broader Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Market-implied odds favoring sub-30 outcomes reflect trader consensus on sustained risk aversion and limited near-term de-escalation, with Saudi-led coalition responses providing only modest support. Key catalysts through late August include any escalation in Yemen-related tensions or verifiable upticks in verified transits that could shift the 7-day moving average.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 21%
35-39 6%
$15,089 Vol.
$15,089 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
45%
25-29
27%
30-34
21%
35-39
6%
40+
2%
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 21%
35-39 6%
$15,089 Vol.
$15,089 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$2,915 Vol.
45%
25-29
$3,518 Vol.
27%
30-34
$3,754 Vol.
21%
35-39
$1,163 Vol.
6%
40+
$3,738 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked shipping and renewed attacks in the southern Red Sea have driven persistent rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, keeping daily Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25–34 vessels. July data showed averages around 31 per day before stabilizing near 25–27 in early August per IMF and Clarksons tracking, well below pre-2023 levels amid broader Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Market-implied odds favoring sub-30 outcomes reflect trader consensus on sustained risk aversion and limited near-term de-escalation, with Saudi-led coalition responses providing only modest support. Key catalysts through late August include any escalation in Yemen-related tensions or verifiable upticks in verified transits that could shift the 7-day moving average.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
ভলিউম
$15,089শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked shipping and renewed attacks in the southern Red Sea have driven persistent rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, keeping daily Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25–34 vessels. July data showed averages around 31 per day before stabilizing near 25–27 in early August per IMF and Clarksons tracking, well below pre-2023 levels amid broader Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Market-implied odds favoring sub-30 outcomes reflect trader consensus on sustained risk aversion and limited near-term de-escalation, with Saudi-led coalition responses providing only modest support. Key catalysts through late August include any escalation in Yemen-related tensions or verifiable upticks in verified transits that could shift the 7-day moving average.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ভলিউম
$15,089শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats of a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked shipping and renewed attacks in the southern Red Sea have driven persistent rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, keeping daily Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25–34 vessels. July data showed averages around 31 per day before stabilizing near 25–27 in early August per IMF and Clarksons tracking, well below pre-2023 levels amid broader Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Market-implied odds favoring sub-30 outcomes reflect trader consensus on sustained risk aversion and limited near-term de-escalation, with Saudi-led coalition responses providing only modest support. Key catalysts through late August include any escalation in Yemen-related tensions or verifiable upticks in verified transits that could shift the 7-day moving average.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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