Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration place Chengdu’s May 19 maximum temperature in a narrow 29–32 °C band, directly explaining why the market’s leading outcomes at 30 °C, 31 °C, and 32 °C trade within a few percentage points of one another. A building subtropical ridge over the Sichuan Basin favors clear skies and enhanced daytime heating above seasonal norms, while lingering low-level moisture and variable cloud cover create modest forecast spread. Traders are weighting the latest model runs against May climatology, where typical highs average 27–29 °C, and will closely monitor the next cycle of guidance for any shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer mixing before the observation window closes.