USGS seismic catalogs for the May 11–17 window recorded precisely six earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide, aligning with the long-term global average of roughly five to eight such events per week during periods of background activity. Steady, dispersed seismicity along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones and mid-ocean ridges produced no major magnitude-7+ shocks or aftershock sequences that would elevate the total. This distribution of isolated moderate events, without clustering or unusual tectonic release, supports the market’s 95% implied probability on the six-outcome bucket. Final catalog revisions or late detections remain the only realistic factors that could shift the count toward seven.