Recent Houthi territorial advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including seizure of key islands and ports near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have sharply elevated security risks and prompted selective rerouting or dark transits, compressing weekly volumes. Shipping data show daily passages recently fluctuating between roughly 20 and 45 vessels—well below pre-escalation baselines near 50–60—amid broader Red Sea disruptions tied to the ongoing Iran-related conflict. Tanker traffic has been particularly constrained, with some reports indicating single-digit daily crossings. Market-implied odds, led by the sub-170 bin at 39%, reflect trader consensus on sustained caution through the week of September 14, though any de-escalation or selective resumption by major carriers could support modestly higher realizations around the 170–209 range.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
<170 39%
170-189 25%
190-209 21%
210-229 9%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 20, 2026
<170
39%
170-189
25%
190-209
21%
210-229
9%
230+
3%
<170 39%
170-189 25%
190-209 21%
210-229 9%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 20, 2026
<170
$3,799 Vol.
39%
170-189
$2,424 Vol.
25%
190-209
$1,256 Vol.
21%
210-229
$1,074 Vol.
9%
230+
$1,122 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi territorial advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including seizure of key islands and ports near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have sharply elevated security risks and prompted selective rerouting or dark transits, compressing weekly volumes. Shipping data show daily passages recently fluctuating between roughly 20 and 45 vessels—well below pre-escalation baselines near 50–60—amid broader Red Sea disruptions tied to the ongoing Iran-related conflict. Tanker traffic has been particularly constrained, with some reports indicating single-digit daily crossings. Market-implied odds, led by the sub-170 bin at 39%, reflect trader consensus on sustained caution through the week of September 14, though any de-escalation or selective resumption by major carriers could support modestly higher realizations around the 170–209 range.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
ভলিউম
$9,675শেষ তারিখ
Sep 20, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi territorial advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including seizure of key islands and ports near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have sharply elevated security risks and prompted selective rerouting or dark transits, compressing weekly volumes. Shipping data show daily passages recently fluctuating between roughly 20 and 45 vessels—well below pre-escalation baselines near 50–60—amid broader Red Sea disruptions tied to the ongoing Iran-related conflict. Tanker traffic has been particularly constrained, with some reports indicating single-digit daily crossings. Market-implied odds, led by the sub-170 bin at 39%, reflect trader consensus on sustained caution through the week of September 14, though any de-escalation or selective resumption by major carriers could support modestly higher realizations around the 170–209 range.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ভলিউম
$9,675শেষ তারিখ
Sep 20, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi territorial advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including seizure of key islands and ports near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have sharply elevated security risks and prompted selective rerouting or dark transits, compressing weekly volumes. Shipping data show daily passages recently fluctuating between roughly 20 and 45 vessels—well below pre-escalation baselines near 50–60—amid broader Red Sea disruptions tied to the ongoing Iran-related conflict. Tanker traffic has been particularly constrained, with some reports indicating single-digit daily crossings. Market-implied odds, led by the sub-170 bin at 39%, reflect trader consensus on sustained caution through the week of September 14, though any de-escalation or selective resumption by major carriers could support modestly higher realizations around the 170–209 range.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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