Ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran conflict continue to constrain maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 61% implied probability on the 20-39 ship outcome. Security risks, including selective passage approvals and naval presence, have kept weekly transits far below the pre-2026 daily average of roughly 130 vessels, with recent data showing 13–17 crossings on individual days in mid-May. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, prices in a modest uptick from earlier near-zero levels due to incremental diplomatic signals and escorted movements, while ruling out sharp rebounds absent broader de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in regional negotiations or naval postures that could alter daily flows before week-end resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
20-39 61%
40-59 28%
60-79 4.8%
<20 3.6%
$92,993 Vol.
$92,993 Vol.
May 17, 2026
<20
4%
20-39
61%
40-59
28%
60-79
5%
80+
1%
20-39 61%
40-59 28%
60-79 4.8%
<20 3.6%
$92,993 Vol.
$92,993 Vol.
May 17, 2026
<20
$34,492 Vol.
4%
20-39
$15,109 Vol.
61%
40-59
$17,540 Vol.
28%
60-79
$13,099 Vol.
5%
80+
$12,752 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran conflict continue to constrain maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 61% implied probability on the 20-39 ship outcome. Security risks, including selective passage approvals and naval presence, have kept weekly transits far below the pre-2026 daily average of roughly 130 vessels, with recent data showing 13–17 crossings on individual days in mid-May. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, prices in a modest uptick from earlier near-zero levels due to incremental diplomatic signals and escorted movements, while ruling out sharp rebounds absent broader de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in regional negotiations or naval postures that could alter daily flows before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
ভলিউম
$92,993শেষ তারিখ
May 17, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran conflict continue to constrain maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 61% implied probability on the 20-39 ship outcome. Security risks, including selective passage approvals and naval presence, have kept weekly transits far below the pre-2026 daily average of roughly 130 vessels, with recent data showing 13–17 crossings on individual days in mid-May. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, prices in a modest uptick from earlier near-zero levels due to incremental diplomatic signals and escorted movements, while ruling out sharp rebounds absent broader de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in regional negotiations or naval postures that could alter daily flows before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ভলিউম
$92,993শেষ তারিখ
May 17, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran conflict continue to constrain maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 61% implied probability on the 20-39 ship outcome. Security risks, including selective passage approvals and naval presence, have kept weekly transits far below the pre-2026 daily average of roughly 130 vessels, with recent data showing 13–17 crossings on individual days in mid-May. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, prices in a modest uptick from earlier near-zero levels due to incremental diplomatic signals and escorted movements, while ruling out sharp rebounds absent broader de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in regional negotiations or naval postures that could alter daily flows before week-end resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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