The dominant trader consensus on fewer than five posts by Khamenei accounts during September 18–25, 2026, reflects the verified low posting frequency of @khamenei_ir and related official profiles, which averaged under 0.1 posts per day in recent months and remained active on only a small fraction of days. This pattern aligns with the accounts’ historical emphasis on selective official statements rather than daily commentary, even amid ongoing regional developments. Primary drivers include the transition following the prior leader’s death and the new Supreme Leader’s focus on institutional messaging through other channels. Scenarios that could increase volume include sudden escalations requiring public statements, major religious observances, or policy announcements tied to nuclear or security matters, though such triggers have not shifted the current implied probability above single digits for higher ranges.