Traders assign near-certainty to fewer than five posts from the primary Khamenei account during the September 15–22 window because its activity remains limited to occasional archival quotes, commemorative material, and historical statements rather than timely new content. The account associated with the late leader continues this restrained pattern in the absence of major anniversaries, official ceremonies, or acute regional developments that typically prompt additional updates. The new supreme leader maintains separate channels with their own posting cadence. A sudden escalation in Middle East tensions, a high-profile official address, or an unexpected institutional announcement within the resolution period could increase volume and shift probabilities, though such catalysts have not materialized in the current stretch.