Latest Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a nocturnal minimum around 15°C in Seoul on May 18, driven by mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover following the recent 12°C low on May 13, positioning it as the leading trader outcome at 29.5% implied probability. The even spread across 13–16°C reflects inherent uncertainty three days out, with radiational cooling under clearer skies potentially dropping to 13–14°C (18–19.5% odds) if winds remain calm overnight, while increased humidity or overcast conditions could sustain 16–17°C (19.5–6.5%). Extremes like 11°C or below (<2%) face barriers from the ongoing warming trend above climatological mid-May averages of 13–15°C. Key KMA updates tomorrow may sharpen the distribution ahead of official station resolution.