Mojtaba Khamenei’s continued absence from public view since his March 2026 appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader remains the central driver of trader positioning on the timing of his first appearance. Following the death of his father in a U.S.-Israeli operation, he has issued only written statements read on state television, with no verified video or audio footage released. Iranian officials and foreign diplomats have cited security risks and injuries sustained in prior strikes as reasons for the low profile, while regime messaging emphasizes continuity of hardline policy through these indirect channels. With the resolution window closing at the end of May 2026, any unscheduled public event tied to diplomatic talks, military developments, or internal consolidation would directly shift implied probabilities, though historical patterns of Iranian leadership transitions show new supreme leaders often limit exposure during periods of heightened external pressure.